BitcoinAggiornato MONDAY MORNING(05/20)Everything you need to know Analysis-WAVE 5
What do we know so far?
Wave 3 extended to x4.62 (8400). Wave 4 was pretty violent and it ended up bottoming at 6400 and did not take the traditional ABC path of wave 4's, which has made counting for wave 5 much more difficult. Volume has calmed down somewhat compared to the wave 3 highs.
What is BITCOIN currently up to?
Momentarily, after hitting the bottom of wave 4-6400(That was projected in an earlier-link in the related ideas), BITCOIN is in an -"Bilateral ascending triangle". From the right chart, we can see that the 1.62x Wave 5 target-8200, was in fact hit yesterday. Here are the bullish and bearish scenario.
1. If BITCOIN closes above 8200=> This could take bitcoin to the blue squares drawn on the left chart. The ultimate extension for wave 5 would be 2.62x- approx 9300. Caution here is that extended Wave 5, usually tend to lead to quite strong consolidations. The other targets as labelled in the chart are, 9600-9800 from the structural extension of the bilateral triangle.
2. The bearish outcome of the triangle would start by BITCOIN breaking the triangles trending line (labelled as purple curves). This is can be quite an expected outcome, since it already hit the 1.62x target for Wave 5. In this case, BITCOIN could retest its 50 week MA, or the structural support around 6.4k.
How should I trade this?
In both of the charts, there are squares that are market for potential profit taking and potential bear traps, and guidance suggestions if crucial trend-lines get broken. Do not be fooled by some of the analysts claiming bitcoin will reach the old highs(Not,just yet). Above 10K, is the FOMO territory and I would not recommend to anyone to enter a long/buy position until things settle. Before we reach the old highs, we have to test the old lows/averages.
The last question: Why has bitcoin gone on such a rally?
Bitcoin confirmed the 50 Month MA support late into 2018. As with all the other assets, particularly equities which bitcoin has carefully followed so far. Equities since January are up about 30%, so it's no surprise that bitcoin would start such a rally. Additionally, the crypto consensus(13-15th of May) expectations and all the invention revelations that were made public, helped the market gain momentum and confidence. This was seen last week, as most of the alts broke their crucial 50 week MA's.
Finally, once the wave 5 top is confirmed, if I have time, I will update this analysis with the potential ABC consolidation points for bitcoin.
Step_ahead_ofthemarket and Happy trading!
>>If you liked this take on bitcoin , I would really appreciate a thumbs up or follow up for more.>>
It seems that especially this summer will be extremely volatile for all markets. There will be plenty of detailed analysis following up.
P.S. Do comment your agreeing TA or one with a difference of opinion!
Wave 3 extended to x4.62 (8400). Wave 4 was pretty violent and it ended up bottoming at 6400 and did not take the traditional ABC path of wave 4's, which has made counting for wave 5 much more difficult. Volume has calmed down somewhat compared to the wave 3 highs.
What is BITCOIN currently up to?
Momentarily, after hitting the bottom of wave 4-6400(That was projected in an earlier-link in the related ideas), BITCOIN is in an -"Bilateral ascending triangle". From the right chart, we can see that the 1.62x Wave 5 target-8200, was in fact hit yesterday. Here are the bullish and bearish scenario.
1. If BITCOIN closes above 8200=> This could take bitcoin to the blue squares drawn on the left chart. The ultimate extension for wave 5 would be 2.62x- approx 9300. Caution here is that extended Wave 5, usually tend to lead to quite strong consolidations. The other targets as labelled in the chart are, 9600-9800 from the structural extension of the bilateral triangle.
2. The bearish outcome of the triangle would start by BITCOIN breaking the triangles trending line (labelled as purple curves). This is can be quite an expected outcome, since it already hit the 1.62x target for Wave 5. In this case, BITCOIN could retest its 50 week MA, or the structural support around 6.4k.
How should I trade this?
In both of the charts, there are squares that are market for potential profit taking and potential bear traps, and guidance suggestions if crucial trend-lines get broken. Do not be fooled by some of the analysts claiming bitcoin will reach the old highs(Not,just yet). Above 10K, is the FOMO territory and I would not recommend to anyone to enter a long/buy position until things settle. Before we reach the old highs, we have to test the old lows/averages.
The last question: Why has bitcoin gone on such a rally?
Bitcoin confirmed the 50 Month MA support late into 2018. As with all the other assets, particularly equities which bitcoin has carefully followed so far. Equities since January are up about 30%, so it's no surprise that bitcoin would start such a rally. Additionally, the crypto consensus(13-15th of May) expectations and all the invention revelations that were made public, helped the market gain momentum and confidence. This was seen last week, as most of the alts broke their crucial 50 week MA's.
Finally, once the wave 5 top is confirmed, if I have time, I will update this analysis with the potential ABC consolidation points for bitcoin.
Step_ahead_ofthemarket and Happy trading!
>>If you liked this take on bitcoin , I would really appreciate a thumbs up or follow up for more.>>
It seems that especially this summer will be extremely volatile for all markets. There will be plenty of detailed analysis following up.
P.S. Do comment your agreeing TA or one with a difference of opinion!
Nota
Monthly overview supporting the strong selling pressures around 10K. Purple triangle would be the range where this rally would end. Above 10k, there is a ichimoku long term average resistance(tiny red line). Breaking above 10.4k (very unlikely), but in case if that happens, easiest thing I would do is follow the drawn Fibonacci levels. Regardless, I do expect a size-able consolidation around the end of May.
Nota
Purple square* a small typo. I have drawn too many triangles today.Nota
Optional buildup for wave 5. Key condition is that 7.4 HAS to hold on the daily. If it doesn't that would be an easy short.
Nota
Possible buildup of a huge bull run. This is a bit of a far-fetched idea, nevertheless if we are entering a bull-run, this would be the outcome. We can judge the potential of this outcome more accurately once we retest the old supports (5-6k's, lowest down to 4200 support)
Nota
Binance symmetrical triangle 8 hr setup. Conditions for a bullish outcome is that it must hold above the 8hr ichimoku cloud and preferable hold the 0.618(7.4-7.5k) Fibonacci support.
Nota
Latest update. These are the optional paths that it can take (bullish & bearish).
Overall, I would not suggest to anyone to trade this setup. The potential for traps and market manipulation is enormous and its really not worth the risk, no matter the potential reward.
Lastly, the last 2 updates on a short-time frame that were posted here, turned out to follow the path that was suggested almost to perfection. I think by the end of this week, we should have an idea of which scenario bitcoin would choose to follow.
Nota
Major move happening this weekend, maybe even today. Interestingly, there was a MACD cross on the daily yesterday, implying that sellers are in control. I am not sure how significant is this, but we will find out by the way the triangle turns out.
Again the potential for manipulation is extremely high caution advised.
-Step_ahead_ofthemarket-
Trade attivo
Trade options for people looking to short bitcoin. If you are bullish, your current targets stand at 9.3-9.8k, and if it breaks 10k, the extreme bullish targets are 10.4k and 11.4k.
Optional trade risk and rewards if it goes breaks-out to 9.8k. Obviously it would be different if the top is at 9.3 or 9.6. But the Risk-Reward currently is heavily screwed in favor of the Bears. Past 10k targets would be 10.4k or 11.4k(labelled as risks).
The consolidation points(rewards for going short) we do not know yet, however most likely points would be 6.4k, 5.75k or 5.2k anything lower than that such as 4.2 k would be highly unlikely, although not impossible. We shall see how it all turns out in June.
-Step_ahead_ofthemarket-
Happy trading people!
Nota
Binance wave 5 buildup aiming for 9.6k as the primary target. In case there is another short squeeze(unlikely at this point based on the volume), in any case we might see 10.4k.
As a precautionory note, this is wave 5, and wave 5's are the riskiest and it shouldn't be surprising if there's a major drop (1-1.4k) out of nowhere.
Nota
Current wave/structure formation on bitcoin.
There's a fair chance that the triangle will break-out on the upside, however it might be a good bear trap on it's way from 9.6k to 10.4k(3.62 extension). It actually might not even break 9.3k (2.62 extension). Since it's wave 5, every analysis at this point when it comes to bitcoin reaching bullish targets is questionable.
This update is just to show the current build-up of waves and structure formations. Trade at your own-risk.
-Step_ahead_ofthemarket-
Nota
How long will this wedge go for? EMA14 days it sure is a great support. 9k already showed a strong signs of selling pressure, we will see how long will this go for. As volume slows down as the price increases, doesn't seem that it will end up well for the bulls.
-Step_ahead_ofthemarket-
Nota
Bitcoin forming a new 5 wave formation.
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