Elliott Wave Analysis: Crude oil searching for a support

13 apr 2021

Crude oil is in strong uptrend since last year, due to limited oil production because of lower demand due to global lock-downs. We see a nice and strong uptrend that has slowed down last month for a correction. Corrections are always healthy as they tend to attract new buyers after retracement.

I am looking at the price action from an Elliott wave perspective and it appears that this can be a fourth wave, likely headed even lower in the near-term as corrective a-b-c pattern appears incomplete. In ideal formations fourth wave will retrace back to 38.2% Fib level where price may stabilize, possibly in May when most of lock- downs can be removed and oil demand will then increase which could lift price. Technically speaking; I am observing 52-54.00 area as a potential support.

In fact, in recent report by OPEC they noted that demand will rise by 5.95 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, or 6.6% which is up 70,000 bpd from last month.
They also mentioned that vaccination programmes will cause increased mobility.