Dow Jones Diamond top? Navigate confusing market conditions

23 mag 2020

Like I said in previous articles, investors finally realised corona virus is not end of humanity, the resulting panic buying pushed Dow Jones above 24000, already recovered more than half of the losses since February 2020. If we look at the DJI chart from January 2018 to 2020, we can see this looks quite similar to a 'diamond' pattern which usually occurs after a long, strong bullish trend. This means DJI will continue to go up, reaching somewhere between 27500 and 30000 in the end of 2020. In early 2021 another crash is very likely, reason could be second or third, fourth wave of corona virus, another trade war between major economies, North Korea behaving very naughty again, Donald Trump losing re-election, etc.



Looking at the 12-month chart of DJIA, clearly it has dropped and bounced back nicely from the long-term trend line at 2003, 2016, 2020. Because DJI held strong, refused to drop below the long term trend line significantly in March 2020, I can safely assume the bullish market since 2009 is not truly over yet. Therefore DJI will rise to the 30000s in a couple of years, trying to break 40000, then finally crash into the Wave II correction around 2025.

swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-25-forecast-update
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/pad_sides_large/public/top_news/30Jan19updateV2.jpg?itok=BiUZWCTS
American demographics and Sun spot cycle both indicate a major correction roughly in 2025, the predicted solar cycle 25 will top out in July 2025. Solar cycle's top usually indicates the passage of an important all time high in American stock market, so the real top of DJI will be months or one year earlier than July 2025.