US Dollar. US President elections 2020. DXY Global trends.

8 nov 2020

The global decline in US Dollar had been going on since the 80s of the last century. The 21st century began with the growth of the dollar against other currencies. DXY dollar index peaked at 120 in July 2001. The next global decline began since July 2001, which ended at 71 in 2008. The dollar index began to grow since May 2011, which continued until the first quarter of 2020. US Dollar had been rising under Democrats US Presidents Clinton and Obama. US Dollar had been falling under Republican US Presidents. DXY growth hasn't been steady, rather resembling a flat under US President Donald Trump. The dollar index will be volatile In the months after the election of the new US President, who is likely to be Joe Biden. DXY index is predicted in the range of 80-100 due to domestic political problems in the United States. Continued growth of US Dollar is possible if domestic political problems are resolved, a clear and consistent economic policy is implemented, and the coronavirus pandemic is contained. Many experts believe that Biden will continue the economic policy that was formed under US President Barack Obama, so we can assume that US Dollar will grow under Biden. DXY index fell to 92 immediately after the US Presidential election in November 2020. Support is provided by the trend line and the 200-month exponential moving average at this level. Further decline in the index is possible due to the aggravation of contradictions between Democrats and Republicans in the transfer of powers to the new US President.

Scenarios for the movement of the US dollar index in the coming months:
Optimistic.
A rebound from the trend line up, index movement in the range of 96-100 and possible growth to 104-108.
Equilibrium̆.
Flat between 50 and 200 monthly exponential moving averages in the range of 90-94.
Pessimistic̆.
The index will drop to 88, consolidate below the 200-month moving average, and possibly move further down into the 80-84 range.