USD Roadmap: Bullish Recovery or Structural Breakdown?

6 giorni fa

DXY DXY

🟢 Scenario A – Bullish Rebound (Red Arrow Up):
Price bounces from the lower channel and breaks toward:

107.348, 110.176, or even 111.901 resistance area.

If the dollar is supported by China buying USD, hawkish Fed, or geopolitical tensions, this scenario gains weight.

🔸 Resistance: Blue downward-sloping line (possible trendline resistance or lower high area)
🔸 Risk: Price could form a lower high and then reverse.

🔴 Scenario B – Bearish Breakdown (Red Arrow Down):
If the USD fails to break above resistance (around 107–112) and gets rejected…

Then we see a move back down, possibly breaking the long-term channel, aiming for the lower diagonal support zone or even sub-92.

🔸 This would signal a major shift in USD strength, possibly driven by:

Fed rate cuts

Global de-dollarization

China not supporting USD

Stronger EUR or CNY

l’altro ieri

Trade attivo

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) appears to have completed a major ABC corrective structure, with wave C potentially bottoming at 96.7. This level aligns with:

✅ The completion of a bullish harmonic pattern (1.618 extension)
✅ Long-term ascending trendline support
✅ Strong confluence with Fibonacci clusters

🟢 Bullish Scenario (Primary):
Targeting Wave a–b–c structure to the upside

Key Fibonacci resistance:
• 106.03 (70%)
• 110.17 (100%)
• 118.90 – 121.12 (long-term projection)

A breakout above 101.65 would confirm Wave a and open the door for a sustained rally. Rejection below 96.0 would invalidate the bullish structure.

💬 Chart by Trwin – July 2025