Another 48h - DXY Heading Into The Weekend With A New 2024 High

2024/11/15
Another 48h - DXY Heading Into The Weekend With A New 2024 High
“dxy is rallying from its annual low to a new annual high this week!
when will recovery come? next week? next month? still 2024?”



Selling off on Wall Street! Is there a sense of panic because Fed Chairman Powell made it clear yesterday that interest rates will not fall as quickly as priced in? Powell says the Fed doesn't need to be 'in a hurry' to reduce interest rates. It seems so - and we should, as I tried to formulate yesterday and/or also feared, that the previously positive, optimistic picture of the advantages for WallStreet from Trump cannot stand up to reality - will not stand up. But Team Trump is likely to be better than Team Harris, let alone Biden. But not perfect - let alone capable of meeting all expectations. And without having to hurt anyone politically, both at home and abroad. But stay calm - it's only been 10 days. And it was clear that the disillusionment would come after the party - Trump would be back in Office 2025! How deep? How long? I don't know that! We will experience this in the coming days and weeks. The difference between the US stock markets and the rest of the world is particularly the most big one, in human history - especially US tech stocks.

“#The reality is that financial markets are self-destabilizing; occasionally they tend toward disequilibrium, not equilibrium.”
George Soros

107.064 : 2024/11/14 - cC) New Annual High Of This Year 2024
106.769 : 2024/11/15 - last price action
105.441 : 2024/11/06 - b) Higher High After 1st False Breakout
104.570 : 2024/10/23 - a) 1st High, False Breakout Out Of Formation
104.187 : 2024/11/07 - bB) Higher Low After 1st False Breakout
103.373 : 2024/11/05 - aA) 1st Low, After False Breakout Out Of Formation
So don't panic if you are now not only bullish, and/or also perhaps have long positions in DXY or other USD exchange rate pairs, as I have formulated for example on 2024/11/10, a new long USDJPY (with entry and/or stop). As i tried to explain yesterday; a fall in the DXY in the coming weeks, for example until the end of the month November 2024, would not call into question the fundamentally positive bullish picture of the DXY - as you can now see for yourself (hope you learned something with the help of my "Another 48h - DXY ..." posts). I'm not going to start questioning the DXY uptrend today - quite the opposite!

But there just seems to be far too much positive bullish expectations in the price action that neither Trump, let alone the FED, can deliever! And what happens in such cases? That's right - the price action is falling. And this is independent of Trump and/or the FED, if I can say that in principle - so that you can take another learning effect with you into the weekend today. Sure - everyone is happy, Trump is reorganizing his team and celebrating it publicly. The anticipation turns into euphoria - but slow down, we are only 10 days after the election. And 4 years are ahead of us. While the FED also seems to be reacting more or less to US inflation. Because the latest US inflation data has risen again for the first time since April 2024. What the traders and/or investors in Chicago also seem to realize - and thus the expectations of a further interest rate cut are being reduced. Which in turn has an influence on the US yield - and last but not least on WallStreet. It is precisely US technology that has the most when it comes to price action. "Because the fundamental P/E ratios are rising - due to the increased price action. But that makes the value of the company more expensive if the profits don't keep up!", as a good friendly market commentator reported today. Therefore, we should be happy if they are also positively bullish on the USD. And we shouldn't be surprised by a cheaper price action of down to 106.5 points and/or even 106 points in the coming week. Because as long as the price action is traded and/or invested above 104.447 points, the price action in the DXY is still above the w trend reversal formation from this summer of 2024. And that's what basically counts - to continue to have a fundamentally positive bullish trend in the DXY and/or also its exchange rate pairs to stay.


With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron



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