Another 48h - The Bears Are Taking Over The DXY Terrain

2024/11/05
Another 48h - The Bears Are Taking Over The DXY Terrain
“after gap at weekstart, the bears have defended the gap so far!
are bulls coming back? or will bears continue to press furthermore?”



104.799 : 2024/07/30 - July High Before Sell-Off
104.447 : 2024/08/01 - High Of W-Formation
103.428 : 2024/11/05 - last price action
102.624 : 2024/11/01 - High During Unemployment Data Release
103.820 : 2017/11/01 - Historical 2nd Mid-Term High
102.624 : 2024/10/04 - Low During Unemployment Data Release
103.104 : 2024/10/10 - High During Inflation Data Release
102.720 : 2024/10/10 - Low During Inflation Data Release
102.624 : 2024/10/04 - High During Unemployment Data Release
102.160 : 2024/08/05 - Low W-Formation
101.855 : 2024/10/04 - Low During Unemployment Data Release
I stick to my basic stance that an upward breakout from our W trend reversal formation is bullish. And/or also a breakout downwards is bearish. And I, if at all, will formulate only a long 4XSetUp or even a short 4XSetUp based on this! If any? Because with the “Another 48h - DXY …” series I want, first and foremost, to learn with you. Make an educational contribution every day that describes the decision-making process for a (not) imminent long and/or 4XSetUp. So let us wait until the DXY breaks out up or down from our w trend reversal formation - and then confirms it! How? By confirming the breakout at 104.447 points with a price action above 104.799 points in order to become bullish again for the following days and weeks! And/Or also with a downward breakout, from the w trend reversal formation, at 102.160 points, with a price action of below 101.855 points in order to become bearish for the following days and weeks!

My broker friend is self sure about the us election, in the next hours: "The message from the markets on the day of the US election is clear: Trump will win - this is shown by the rise in stocks (all sectors in the S&P 500 are up), this is shown by the rise in Bitcoin. And this is also shown by the rise in capital market interest rates." I don't buy it - although I could live with it even better than with the US Democrats, including Harris. But that's the American business! So let us wait! Can the markets be wrong? Is the price action going in the wrong direction? Of course, especially because the race is extremely close and will probably be decided by a few thousand votes, as in the 2016 and 2020 elections! And of course my friend can also misinterpret the increase - just like me! Let's not kid ourselves, which is why we should treat this week's price action with caution - especially because a Trump and Harris victory could not only trigger a rally. But that's only in the short term, if I'm not mistaken - because the big and ultimate opponent assumes that both Trump and Harris will go into further debt. And that could mean a still expensive us yield curve. Which promises fixed-interest securities in the USD - but would cause the Fed's interest rate cuts to evaporate. But that should at least be bullish for the DXY and stock markets - regardless of how the bond market reacts. However, I don't understand his overreaction anyway - I perceive it as exaggerated. And when it comes to price action on the bond market, i.e. us yield curve, I wouldn't out myself as one of the competent observers and analysts.

“Increase your bets when you are confident and scale down your positions when you don’t have conviction.”
George Soros

July, August and/or September were bearish red months for the DXY . In contrast to October, which was a juicy bullish green month. What we can also prove with the help of the fundamental Marko analysis, using US economic figures - such as the publication of the last two US unemployment rates. And or also based on the publication of the last US inflation rate. Because during all three publications, and especially afterwards, the price action of the DXY was not only traded and invested above the downward trend (from July, August, and or even September). no - since then the price action of the DXY has no longer been traded or invested within, let alone below, the price action of the published hour. So we can certainly speak of a bullish upward trend in the DXY since October, since the low for the year on September 27th at 100.157 points. So we can argue verified bullish, by using both technical analysis and fundamental analysis! How far can this take us optimistic bulls? How high can the DXY rise? I don't know that! But that is the learning material for this calendar week. For a calendar week that, for better or for worse, more or less, is likely to be the most exciting calendar week of the entire year 2024.

103.428 points - (2024/11/05) - last price action
103.104 points - (2024/10/10) - high while last Inflation Data
102.720 points - (2024/10/10) - low while last Inflation Data
102.624 points - (2024/10/04) - high while last Labor Market Report
101.855 points - (2024/10/04) - low while last Labor Market Report
It's a bad day in terms of price action today, in terms of the DXY .
The DXY fell by almost -0.5% over the course of the day and is currently trading more or less at daily lows. And that before the US presidential election is decided in the coming hours. The fact that today's daily high was more or less at the level of the lower trend line of the GAPS is absolutely bearish. A clear defeat for the Bulls. The path back to price action during the publication of the latest US inflation data is marked. But a bullish or bearish reaction is likely to occur in the coming hours, precisely because of the US presidential election. So let's just wait for the election...


With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron



Another 48h - DXY ... is pure information material.
By trying to give you even more information about the DXY every day to make even better trading decisions (buy/sell or do nothing). The goal of each day is from my side that you say to yourself after reading my daily analysis (Another 48h - DXY ...): "I didn't notice that before!" Because then you have received new information; yes - maybe even learned something!? If, yes? Then give me a like - and continue reading tomorrow! Concrete 4XSetUps with entry price, target price and also stop price are available in the daily 4XSetUps...