Channel Hold or Channel Fold? Emini SPX
Tested channel after 8:30 numbers. A hold today and rally would be very bullish a fail underneath and a retest of the channel from underneath would likely be bearish. No decision until after cash opens and even then expect a lot of trickery. PUT/CALL is bearish so another swing up would not surprise me but I'm going to let price action decide.
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Starting to lose the channel, cash session may come up to test it if it's much lower.
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Sort of a picasso like head and shoulders, if it plays out (BIG IF) then the target is around 3650 - also a support level
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at open, I expect another test of the neckline. Above 3750 again and it will start to look like a bullish reversal.
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shouldn't have said "expect" in the last chart - but rather "watching out for"
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Trying to hold onto the channel, I still think they will move up to surprise shorts before a larger move down, but that can be wrong. Just waiting here, still short aapl and spy but not heavy.
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Channel lost, they couldn't hold it and make a rally first. Technical traders will see this as very bearish.
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On SPX cash we really haven't broken the channel trendline and it bothers me that this is the case. It is very possible this is just a B of an ABC and so I want to urge caution. It looks more bearish on futures, but when I see discrepancies like this I get cautious.
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SPY looking similar - a close today above 368 on spy and I would urge caution for shorts into next week.
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IF they recapture 3730 today on futures the daily candle will look like a false breakdown and we go higher likely next week. I will update if that happens.
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SPY looks like it lost trend. lower into EOD would be good for bears. A recapture by EOD would be good for bulls.
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SPY at a support level and the .618 fib - typical buy zone for many. I'm taking some profit here in case something weird happens and they reverse it.
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bear flag continuation to 3580 likely. Will reevaluate once that level is reached. Going out for the day - good luck!
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head and shoulders target reached
