Spx500 Bear Case #2 [Primary]

25 nov 2022

This is the second bear case,
and it just so happens to be my primary scenario on the US Stock market [for now].
Just wanted to get the simple counts out of the way, before sharing this one.

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Using the expanding diagonal fractal for the first wave from ath,
it's possible the spx500 is only in "wave a" on this local move up (of a larger a-b-c)
this is currently the scenario i'm personally leaning towards.

let me explain why:

-lines up with my dxy projection.
-insider buys, are about to flip insider sells.
-retail short interest is at record high levels.
-retail is usually wrong.
-so how do we get retail out, while still dropping the market?

1 word. chop.

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If the market chops for another 3-6+ months, every last bear standing will get absolutely rekt.
And only after-which, once the short interest disappears, and the last put expires worthless-
will the markets see the final cataclysmic collapse.

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Stay safe, and don't go into a trade without a plan.

🔺

Ps. i recently called the expanding diagonal fractal out, and it ended up front running my target, which was kinda unexpected.
I understand why it did as of now, and it was an important lesson for the future.

check out that post via:

🔺