ES Futures — Week Ahead Playbook (Aug 11–15)

Macro Drivers to Watch
Tue Aug 12 @ 8:30 AM ET — CPI (July)
Key inflation print; expect sharp vol expansion in NY AM.

Wed Aug 13 @ 2:00 PM ET — FOMC Minutes
Insight into Fed’s July 29–30 meeting tone.

Fri Aug 15 @ 8:30 AM ET — PPI (July) + Retail Sales (July)
Two high-impact releases within minutes.

Geopolitics:

US–China tensions over AI chip export controls & Russian oil tariffs

Possible Alaska summit with Trump, Putin, Zelenskyy Friday.

Bias & Structure
Trend (30m / 15m / 5m): Still bullish but pressing into 6415–6425 supply / weak-high zone.

Demand below: ~6410, ~6397, ~6386, ~6374.

Supply above: ~6425, ~6442–6446, ~6460–6465.

Setup 1 — Post-CPI Continuation Long
Trigger: First 5m close above 6422–6425 after CPI, then retest holds.

Entry: 6423–6427 (retest).

Invalidation: 5m close < 6418.

Targets:

TP1: 6432–6435

TP2: 6442–6446

TP3: 6460–6465

Notes: Needs bullish displacement, BOS hold, and Bookmap absorption on retest.

Setup 2 — Post-CPI Reversal Short
Trigger: Hot CPI or failed breakout → 5m close < 6406–6410, then retest from below.

Entry: 6406–6410.

Invalidation: 5m close > 6413–6415.

Targets:

TP1: 6388–6392

TP2: 6376–6378

TP3: 6358–6362

Notes: Needs trend flip on 30m/15m (CHoCH/BOS down) & heavy offer-side aggression.