Liberation, Altercation or Doom? ES Futures weekly plan

ES1!

Quick Update

​The upcoming week is poised to be critical for financial markets as President Donald Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" on April 2 approaches. On this date, the administration plans to implement new tariffs aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit by imposing reciprocal duties on imports from various countries. ​

As April 2 looms, the full impact of these tariffs remains uncertain, leaving markets and investors in a state of heightened anticipation.​

• We may get clarity on the tariff situation on April 2, 2025.
  
• Universal tariff announcement of categories of imports may clarify US administration’s maximum tariff escalation approach.
  
• A phased out and unclear tariff approach may keep markets in limbo.
  

Economic Calendar

Keep an eye on the data docket, NFP and other key releases are due this week.

• Tuesday, Apri 1, 2025: ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings
  
• Wednesday April 2, 2025: ADP Employment Change, Factory Orders MoM
  
• Thursday April 3, 2025: Balance of Trade, Imports, Exports, ISM Services PMI, Initial Jobless Claims
  
• Friday, April 4, 2025: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM,Average Hourly Earnings YoY, Fed Chair Powell Speech
  

Key Levels to Watch:

• Yearly Open 2025: 6001.25
  
• Key Resistance: 5850- 5860
  
• LVN: 5770 -5760
  
• Neutral Zone: 5705-5720
  
• Key LIS Mid Range 2024: 5626.50
  
• 2024-YTD mCVAL: 5381
  
• 2022 CVAH: 5349.75
  
• August 5th, 2024 Low: 5306.75
  

1. Scenario 1: Bold but Strategic Tariffs (Effective Use of Tariff to reduce trade deficit and raise revenue): In this scenario, we may see relief rally in ES futures, price reclaiming 2024 mid-range with a move higher towards key resistance level.
   
   
2. Scenario 2: Maximum pressure, maximum tariff (All out trade war): In this scenario, we anticipate a sell-off with major support levels, such as 2024- YTD mCVAL, 2022 CVAH and August 5th, 2024 low as immediate downside targets.
   
   
3. Scenario 3: Further delays in Tariff policy (A negotiating tool, with looming uncertainty): In this scenario, sellers remain in control and uncertainty persists, while we anticipate that rallies may be sold, market price action may remain choppy and range bound.