Futures E-mini S&P 500Aggiornato #ES_F Day Trading Prep For the Week 8.07-8.11
Last Week :
Surprisingly last week played out perfectly just had to be a little patient with things, last Sunday we noted that market needed either a strong push over 4615-10 and hold above or consolidate under 4603 before pushing over 4615-10 to possibly continue higher and if not the buyers who are not getting the upside here for weeks will start selling which can start triggering lower stops and if we take take out Swing Stops we can see lower Key Support at 4532-25 and Cost Basis under at 4525-4502 tested.
We did get a push over 4615 but it was done end of day Monday after consolidating over 4603 not under. We spent some time over it Tuesday Globex but failed to hold over. Tuesday RTH breaking, putting in time/volume and closing under 4603 signaled weakness and confirmation of trapped longs over 4603 as they tried to keep it over 4615 and failed, bid under 4590 was removed and we opened on the gap lower which started our trip to lower targets.
This Week :
Friday we got a nice pull back towards Supply area and found more selling which gave us the break of 4525-4502 cost basis. Going forward this might be our potential Supply area into this week as we did put in time and volume above it and failed to hold. Not only did we break 4508-02 but we also took out the minor stops just under it after hours.
Depending how we open (maybe another gap?) but if we fail to get back over 4508-02 and hold this could bring in more selling as we would be again under the Settlement, if that's the case then we can target lower targets. We have Current Support at 4487-49 but I wouldn't put too much trust in it, with some size we break it...
Under we have untested end of day Spike Base at 4465-60 and another Cost Basis under it at 4460-45, both are good targets if we see continuation. We would need to see 4445-37 break and hold under for any more downside.
IF this is size trying to get out of the market we will go through the levels like they don't matter but so far its been very mechanical because we can see how we get responses after the tests and still get pull backs to trap more supply on the way down.
For the market to go back up we would need to either bounce from 4487-79 or consolidate over it and get back over 4508-02 with good hold hold then we could see a move higher to retest our previous Key Support which we broke but that is now Supply area we would need either a strong bid or a nice consolidation under to get back over it I would think. We can look for possible quick longs from lower Supports if want to trade long as those areas usually have some buying around but over all better trades might be short this week. We take it day by day because everything can change, that's the way its set up now.
Levels to Watch :
Resistance // Current 4510-02 // Key 4532-25
If Above can target 4548-43 Stops Would need a hold above to continue
Support // Current 4487-79
Under can target 70-65-60 Cost Basis 4460-45
Key Support 4445-37 Would need to be broken for any continuation
Lower Area of interest just in case : 4422-18 // 4403-4383
Surprisingly last week played out perfectly just had to be a little patient with things, last Sunday we noted that market needed either a strong push over 4615-10 and hold above or consolidate under 4603 before pushing over 4615-10 to possibly continue higher and if not the buyers who are not getting the upside here for weeks will start selling which can start triggering lower stops and if we take take out Swing Stops we can see lower Key Support at 4532-25 and Cost Basis under at 4525-4502 tested.
We did get a push over 4615 but it was done end of day Monday after consolidating over 4603 not under. We spent some time over it Tuesday Globex but failed to hold over. Tuesday RTH breaking, putting in time/volume and closing under 4603 signaled weakness and confirmation of trapped longs over 4603 as they tried to keep it over 4615 and failed, bid under 4590 was removed and we opened on the gap lower which started our trip to lower targets.
This Week :
Friday we got a nice pull back towards Supply area and found more selling which gave us the break of 4525-4502 cost basis. Going forward this might be our potential Supply area into this week as we did put in time and volume above it and failed to hold. Not only did we break 4508-02 but we also took out the minor stops just under it after hours.
Depending how we open (maybe another gap?) but if we fail to get back over 4508-02 and hold this could bring in more selling as we would be again under the Settlement, if that's the case then we can target lower targets. We have Current Support at 4487-49 but I wouldn't put too much trust in it, with some size we break it...
Under we have untested end of day Spike Base at 4465-60 and another Cost Basis under it at 4460-45, both are good targets if we see continuation. We would need to see 4445-37 break and hold under for any more downside.
IF this is size trying to get out of the market we will go through the levels like they don't matter but so far its been very mechanical because we can see how we get responses after the tests and still get pull backs to trap more supply on the way down.
For the market to go back up we would need to either bounce from 4487-79 or consolidate over it and get back over 4508-02 with good hold hold then we could see a move higher to retest our previous Key Support which we broke but that is now Supply area we would need either a strong bid or a nice consolidation under to get back over it I would think. We can look for possible quick longs from lower Supports if want to trade long as those areas usually have some buying around but over all better trades might be short this week. We take it day by day because everything can change, that's the way its set up now.
Levels to Watch :
Resistance // Current 4510-02 // Key 4532-25
If Above can target 4548-43 Stops Would need a hold above to continue
Support // Current 4487-79
Under can target 70-65-60 Cost Basis 4460-45
Key Support 4445-37 Would need to be broken for any continuation
Lower Area of interest just in case : 4422-18 // 4403-4383
Nota
Globex opened and pushed over 4508-02 and it acted as our Support all night, we have built up more supply over it, tried to push for Key Resistance but failed. Going into today those are are key areas to watch. If we can take out 08-02 again we can see continuation towards lower targets. Unless we fail to continue under 4502 and tag 4487 and just hold then that could be red flags for lower continuation. But to get anything going long we would need to get back inside 25-32 and get over it so have to wait and see what we do hereNota
Failure here could bring another test of 08-02 where we could watch for continuation. Unless we hold here and get above 32.50 and holdNota
So far got a flush under 25 but cant continue, we could hold this area today with possibly pop over 32.50 for a stop run. If that will be the case then will need to see what Globex will do tonight if it can continue holding 32-25 or not. Still plenty of time left for something to happen, being Monday have to manage if it doesn't.Nota
Last night Globex opened and drove back over 4508-02 and it acted as support. We did find more sellers at 4532-25 tests in RTH but failed to tag/break 08-02 which gave us a hold and a stop run over 32.50 towards the end of day. That becomes important area to watch going into tonight, if price comes back into 32.50-24 will we still have support there or is the bid gone to potentially trap more buyers from today over night. If we do hold over 32.50-25 or cant get back inside it then that will show stability and potential hold of this area for a move towards 48-43 into that Supply area above. We took some upper stops today and have lower ones lined up down towards 4487-79, will we have the selling to take it or do we rotate back up. I think we should have something left in the tank still but we have to wait and see.Nota
Looks like bid was gone after all, Globex opened gave a nice short back inside 32-25 area. We built up supply there through the night and then got the break. Once we chewed through stops through 19 it was a smooth move down to 4508-02. We are at T2 low and broke previous day low, have supply above, all set up to try and take lower stops today. Watch targets at 97-95 // 87-79 Would need to break/accept under for continuation, if happens 65-60 Untested Spike Base and could get into 40s-30s-20s if we have real selling pressure. But we watch level to level. For this thing to hold we would need to get a bounce back over 4508, consolidate and take out 4525 again.Nota
Under T2 low we could see margin call selling, careful trying to buy longs if we stay underNota
We flushed 4508-02 and T2 low but stops at 97-95 held, Careful forcing continuation early unless we get continued selling from the open, if not then could still hold and get more consolidation over this area with a possible break later in the day. Areas to watch going into RTH are 4525-32 Key Resistance, 4508-02 Current SupportNota
IF we can hold under 4508-02, I would look for potential continuation under 87-79 later today if we built up here and get more selling to break that lower Support. We still have buyers front running the stops and already made a big move from last night, we can find some consolidation around here so need to give it time to set up, unless strong selling continues driving it lowerNota
IF we run out of selling here under 4500 and make a move over 02 watch out because it could rotate towards 25Nota
Yesterday we took out 4508-02 and hit our lower Support target at 87-79, we didn't get a full break and started holding above, as mentioned earlier careful looking for continuation if we don't hold under 4500 and careful if we run out of selling and get over 02 could give a move back towards 25 which we got. Now globex has been going sideways in our Key Resistance, IF market can't get over 4532 push through 4540 and hold above then there is a chance to rotate back down, we have already cleared the stops from 4508-02 and took out some of the buying from 4487-79 area. If we start rotating back down from here we can again target 4508-02 // 4487-79 and IF we break lower targets would be 4465-60 // 45-37 where we watch for any continuation. IF we hold head and fail to get back under 25-19 and continue lower then we could see a push over 32.50 at some point to head for 48-43 but dont forget we have supply trapped above and if they are coming out our buyers are lower, as mentioned Sunday this selling seems very mechanical we hit an area with buyers, hold then bounce once selling is done but that bounce doesnt last trapping more new longs on the way who dont get out or looking for bigger continuation higher. Careful to not get trapped for liquidity because market needs to start holding over 4530-40 areas for strength to be back in, until then we can see more balance or continuation lower.Nota
Under 4508-02 puts us under T2 low again and I know market has been giving nice buy the dip opportunities at Support after we run the stops but careful if we do get actual selling then we can get through some areas without any good long pops. Under 4508-02 we can see marginsNota
Careful trying to buy longs, watching for possible continuation towards lower targets mentioned todayNota
If 87-79 holds again then careful with continuation as we can spend time between that and 4508-02 again but would be surprised to see a move over 02-08 today as we have now trapped more supply over it. Of course we never know and have to trade what happens, will see how the day holds up around here or if we can get continuation at least towards 65-60 at some pointNota
Yesterday we got a pre market failure at 4532-25 area, were able to take out 08-02 and test the Current Support again at 4487-79, we tested 79 this time but still no full break/continuation away from that area, we ran out of selling and tried to run it up over 08-02 again we did get over it but didn't have the buying to actually hold over which matches the theme we have been having of hitting a level, getting a bounce and trapping more longs with lower and weaker bounces. So far going into today Globex opened and drover towards and over 08-02 again which is now acting as our Resistance, going into today can be tricky with data this morning, wont be surprised to see a flush lower under Current Support but also wont be surprised to run out of selling and again do some kind of pull back towards 4508-02 or close at some point unless we can take out lower targets and stay under. Levels to watch Current Resistance 4508-02 if fail here can see 4487-79 again under we can target 4465-60 we have cost basis there and can see buying at or under if we get in there with next Key Support area at 4445-37. For market to go higher we would need to either accept over 08-02 hold and head for 4532-25 and not fail or hold 87-79 again.Nota
So far holding this Resistance area, we have CPI coming up soon so we probably wont get a real move until after them. I would be careful to trust it today, we have been supply over 4510-25, we have been building up in this 4490-4510 area all night and CPI should give us a move. If we see a flush lower then some sort of pull back and we fail to get back over 4508-02 then we are again in danger of margin calls, we haven't seen any yet but we are at that area where if market wont reverse then some players will need to sell out. So holding under this 4510 area means weakness and if we break 90-80 again then possibly for this candy to start falling out towards our next cost basis, we can find support at 65-60 and under but if enough volume we could break that and test 4445-37 // 22-18. Unless market can push over 4510-02 and hold above that would mean stability again.Nota
4532-25 and 4508-02 become our areas to watch going into RTH, will we balance around them again or do we have the volume today to get above or below and continue. So far CPI took out upper stops then ran the stops under 08-02 and now holding over it which brings buyers and stability. Lets see if these new buyers about to get trapped again and we continue lower or we take out 32-25 trap shorts and continue higher, so far Supply is still aboveNota
Dont forget under 32-25 thats back under KEY Resistance and if we take out 08-02 then our lower thesis is in play, so far we AGAIN trapped longs over resistance and flushing them out, taking lower stops could fire cracker us lower unless we can hold above 4508-02 and get back over 4525. If we do just continue holding here most of the day then I would probably look for a move later in the day, if we fall out of this balance we can test at least 4465-60 areaNota
87-79 is the area to watch for any downside, so far market gave a nice short after another failure from Key Resistance but not tag of Support on that push. Will have to see if we try again later today. So far market is still in a downtrend and every hold/pop gets sold trapping more buyers higher, today we ran some of the upper stops but again failed to hold over. Going forward today I think it would be hard for the market to hold over 4510 area too which could give us a b profile day in this 4510-4480 area or we build up enough to give us a break and test of 65-60. Of course anything can happen if we start holding over 02-08 that would bring stability back.Nota
Another day in this 4540-4480 range. In the morning we knew that holding over 4510-02 brings stability and could bring in more buyers but market must hold over 4532-25 to see any continuation. So far 4508-02 has been acting as our mean and 32-25 Key Resistance and 87-79 Support have been working great for trades away from them. I have been a little biased waiting for this continuation lower and market just needs its time to move. So far in my opinion every pop higher has been trapping new longs and moving the Support bid lower, as you can see it takes us a hard time going up and easy down we are in a short term down trend, doesn't mean we cant pop and rip but its less likely right now as we are going through a correction as inventory got too long at Resistance over 4570. So far as I keep mentioning holding under 4510-02 means weakness and we are under the settlement for a month worth of trading, traders on margin might be forced to sell out at some point. Yes we are currently at potential Support but if we show it some size we should see continuation lower towards 4465-60 // 45-37 and maybe 4422-10. We have important data tomorrow, will the market start some move tonight? we gave been moving supply lower and lower, closed right around Support today showing weakness. Unless market can consolidate here and get back over 4487 and hold/build base over it or opens and drives over 4502-08 and holds over then most likely we can see continuation starting tonight if we break 4487-79, we can target 70-65-60. We do have cost basis under there if we get under that targets 50s we should see some buying around 45-37 area and that would be spot to watch for continuation but we might not break it with ON Volume, IF we do then we would need to watch if it sticks or if we get a pop later. For us to go higher tonight or tomorrow I would not be a buyer unless market can hold here and show strength but ideally get over 4508-02 with some consolidation under it, otherwise not interested. It could be a crazy Friday trade safe! Levels to Watch Resistance 4508-02 Key Resistance 32-25 Current Support 4487-79 Lower Supports 65-60 // 45-34 // 22-18 // 03-4392Nota
Can be a tricky day today, all night we have been holding this Support. We should see some flush of this inventory BUT if we cant tag or break and hold under 65-60 this thing could turn around today as well at some point and head back towards 4500-4525, we must accept and hold under for lower continuations, we are still in area of Support and also VAH from 4hr TPO chart. Lets see what it does, if we do break and go we have lower targets. Levels to watch Supports 4487-79 // 65-60 // 45-37 // 22-18 Resistance 4495 // 4502-08 // 4525-32Nota
87-79 Finally built up enough supply to break and hit our next lower target at 65-60 which was untested Spike Base that happened end of day which sometimes means weak. Right now we are at target and need to give market time to decide direction. I don't think we will be able to hold inside this area so we should see a move out of it at some point, 4480-65 is the area I will focus on. 4487-79 is now our current resistance, if we clean up the selling and get over we could see move towards 95-02-08 again and maybe over? but we have supply above if we cant hold above and then take out 65-60 at some point that could give us continuation towards lower targets. I don't really want to be trading between those areas unless its clear direction because we are now at target and we need to let size decide next move.
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