ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Jul24-28)

24 lug 2023

SUMMARY

• ES finished the week with a gain of 0.63 % after trading in a range of 75 pts.
  
• ES closed back below the 1.13 Fib X
  
• First support now 9 ema
  
• First resistance remains the 1.13 Fib extension
  
• Sector rotation last week out of the aggressive XLK, XLY, XLC into more defensive XLE, XLF, XLU,XLV & XLP
  
• FOMC rate decision on Wed and PCE on Friday
  
• Huge week for earnings including reports from GOOGL, AMZN, META, MSFT, V, & BA.
  
• Long term bias remains bullish but deeper pull back to the 21 ema or lower is likey to start the week.
  
• Market needs rotation back into small caps to push to ATHs.
  

ECONOMIC EVENTS

• MON US S&P Manufacturing PMI (Flash)
  
• TUES US CB Consumer Confindence
  
• WED US New Home Sales, EIA Crude, BOC Mtg Minutes & FOMC Rate Decision
  
• THUR US Initial Jobless Claims, US GDP (Advance), US Durable Goods, US PCE(Advance)
  
• FRI US PCE, US Consumer Spending, US PCE Prices, CAN GDP & US Personal Income
  

EARNINGS

• MON CDNS, CLF, DPZ, NXPI
  
• TUES BIIB, DOW,GE, GLW, GM, GOOGL, MSFT, NUE, PCAR,PHM, QGEN, RTX, SNAP, TDOC,
  
• TXN, UBS, V, VZ, WM
  
• WED ADP, ALGN, BA, DB, DGX, EBAY, HLT, MAT, LRCX, META, NOW, OC, ODFL, OTIS, STX, T,
  
• TER, UNP, URI
  
• THUR ABBV,AMZN,BMY,BUD,CROX,CVE, DLR, EIX, ENPH, F,
  
• FSLR,HON,HSY,HTZ,INTC,MA,LUV,MCD,ROKU, SKX
  
• FRI AZN, CVX, PG,WPC, XOM
  

BULLISH NOTES

• ES above the Aug 16th high
  
• EMAs remain stacked.
  
• Price is now only 7.32% from ATH
  
• Potential earnings momentum this week from many key reports
  
• Potential positive reaction to FOMC rate decison and/ or PCE data.
  
• Buy the dip is back in favour.
  
• Market breath has improved.
  
• ES is firmly in the long term bull zone. Above high time frame 618 Fib RT.
  

BEARISH NOTES

• Price rejected at 1.13 Fib extension resistance
  
• 9/21 emas may need to be retested.
  
• Pin bar weekly close.
  
• AAPL touched 200 & TSLA touched 300 already.
  
• Potential negative reaction key earnings reports
  
• Potential negative reaction to FOMC rate decision and PCE data
  
• The Dec 13th high breakout point has not been re-tested yet.
  
• Price is stretched for the weekly emas and 200 sma
  
• Potential shock event (War, banks, rate hikes)
  

24 lug 2023

Nota

$ES_F Holding the daily 9 ema so far. More bullish above the 1.13 Fib X. Less bullish below the 9 ema. Price breaks below the 9 ema look for a move to the 21 ema then pot the Aug 16th high. Upside target on a break higher would be the 4700 zone.
FYI that I will be away this week and not trading so will not be updating charts as usual. Good luck during this volatile week.