ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Jul31-Aug4)

31 lug 2023

SUMMARY

• ES finished the week with a gain of 0.94 % after trading in a range of 76 pts.
  
• ES closed again at the HTF 786 Fib RT
  
• First support remains the daily 9 ema
  
• Strongest sectors for the week were XLC & XLC. The weakest were XLU & XLRE.
  
• Another big week for earnings with key reports from AMD, HOOD, AAPL, AMZN, BABA, ABNB
  
• Long term bias remains bullish but deeper pull back to the upward trendline is possible.
  
• Market needs rotation back into small caps to push to ATHs.
  
• Watching 10 year yields as they pushed above 4% last Thursday
  
• Monday is the last day of the month.
  
• Key econ data this week includes US S&P PMI, Employment Change & Non Farm Payrolls on Friday.
  

ECONOMIC EVENTS

• MON US Chicago PMI
  
• TUES CAD S&P Manu PMI, US S&P Manu PMI, US ISM Manu PMI, US JOLTS & US
  Construction Spending
  
• WED US ADP Employment Change, EIA Crude Inventories
  
• THUR US S&P Services PMI, US ISM Services PMI, US Factory Orders
  
• FRI CAD Unemployment Rate, US Non Farm Payrolls & US Unemployement Rate
  

EARNINGS

• MON AMKR, ANET, CAR, FANG, IMGN, L, LEG, RIG, SOFI, WDC, YUMC
  
• TUES AFL, AIG, ALL, AMD, AME, CAT, CHK, CZR, DVN, EA, ELF, ETN, MO, MRK, MTCH,
  NCLH,PFE,PINS, ROK,SBUX, SEDG, TAP, UBER, SFM
  
• WED ACAD, CFLT, DASH, DISH, EMR, FTS, HOOD, IR, JCI, KHC, MCK, MET, MGM, MRO,
  NTR, OXY, PSA, PYPL, QCOM, QRVO,
  
• THUR AAPL, ABNB, ADT, AMGN, AMZN, BABA, BCE, BE, CNQ, COIN, COP, CVNA, DKNG,
  DOCN, ED, EXPE, FTNT, HAS, IEP, K, MRNA, NET,
  
• FRI ENB, MGA, XPO, SONY
  

BULLISH NOTES

• ES above the Aug 16th high
  
• EMAs remain stacked.
  
• Price is now only 6.57% from ATH
  
• Potential earnings momentum this week from many key reports including AAPL
  
• Potential positive reaction to PMI data and Non-Farm Payrolls
  
• Potential rotation into small caps
  
• Buy the dip is back in favour.
  
• Market breath has improved.
  
• ES is firmly in the long term bull zone. Above high time frame 618 Fib RT.
  

BEARISH NOTES

• Potential rejected at HTF 786 Fib resistance
  
• 9/21 emas may need to be retested.
  
• Potential negative reaction key earnings reports including AAPL
  
• Potential negative reaction PMI data and Not-Farm Payrolls.
  
• The Dec 13th high breakout point has not been re-tested yet.
  
• Price is stretched for the weekly emas and 200 sma
  
• Potential shock event (War, banks, rate hikes)
  
• Potential yield move back above 4%.
  

1 ago 2023

Nota

$ES_F continues to be stuck just below the 786 Fib trading sideways. Market waiting on more info. May not see a signifant move until we get earnings for AMZN and AAPL. Trader hesitant to commit. Focus on scalp plays until something cracks.

2 ago 2023

Nota

$ES_F Well something cracked. Rejected harshly off the 786 Fib and now trading back at the 21 ema. Has already broken the upward trendline. If it fails to hold the 21 ema a move back to the Aug 16th high is possible.

4 ago 2023

Nota

$ES_f Hanging on to the 21 ema by a thread trading below the green support box. Price needs to reclaim the 21 ema for bullish recovery. Expect bearish price action below the 21 ema and more bullish above. AAPL reaction to earnings was negative but 10 yields have pulled back and AMZN is strong.