ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Jun5-9)

5 giu 2023

ES has broken out of the large ascending triangle putting the Aug 16th high in play. ES has been lagging the NQ but may play catch up quickly if we see broader market strength and improved breadth. Watch for a potential pull back into the Dec 13th breakout point before trend continuation.

SUMMARY
• ES posted a 1.35% gain last week after trading in a range of 124 points.
• ES closed above the Dec 13th high (4216)
• The break of the 4216 level confirms a bullish break from the giant ascending triangle.
• Next resistance is HTF 618 Fib RT at 4336 and then the Aug 16th pivot high at 4412.
• Strongest sectors to close the week were XLK, XLY, XLC & XLRE. Weakest was XLU & XLP
• All sectors closed green on the week pointing to improving market breadth.
• Currently rally led by MEGA cap tech stocks must be supported by broader market for trend continuation.
• Only 46% of stocks are now above their 200 SMAs.
• Earnings this week include reports from NIO, THO, DOCU TCOM, GME
• Buy the Dip may return

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday US S&P PMI, US Factory Orders & US ISM PMI
Tuesday Nothing notable
Wednesday Boc Rate Decision, EIA Crude Inventories US Trade Balance & Yellen Speaks
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims & US Wholesale Inventories
Friday Canadian Unemployment rate


NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday GTLB
Tuesday CIEN, SJM, THO
Wednesday CPB, GME, TCOM
Thursday DOCU
Friday NIO

BULLISH NOTES

ES broke through the Dec 13th high
ES has broken out of an ascending triangle
EMA are stacked
Aggressive sectors outperforming defensive sectors
All sectors close green increasing breadth
Debt ceiling limit has been increased
Potential beginning of month inflows

BEARISH NOTES

Stoch 5.1 is Overbought
Potential hard reversal off the HTF 618 Fib RT
A retest of the Dec 13th high breakout zone is likely
MEGA cap stock are extended and near resistance zones
Earning season momentum will fade
Potential shock event (more bank failures)
VIX is below 15 (sell zone)

5 giu 2023

Nota

ES_F working it way above Friday's pivot high which is bullish. Upside target for trend continuation is the 618 fib above. A move above the 618 flips the long term bias for the S&P from neutral to bullish. ES currently in catchup mode to NQ.

6 giu 2023

Nota

ES_F pulled back this morning but found support at yesterday's lows. Getting some support from financials today. 4300 is first resistance. Upside target remains the 618 Fib retracement if 4300 can be taken out.

7 giu 2023

Nota

ES_F the 4300 level is proving to be a wall of resistance. Corrective moves are nasty on the lower time frames but if you zoom out we can see that ES is currently consolidating in a range. Watch for a break of the grey box for directional clues. My longer term bias remains higher but may need a deeper p/b to draw in buyers

8 giu 2023

Nota

ES_F hanging on to the bottom of the consolidation box. If price fails to hold the box a move down to the Dec 13th high is likely. If the bottom holds a move to the top of the range and potentially the 618 Fib is possible.

9 giu 2023

Nota

ES_F The bottom of the range box held and we got a nice reversal back to the top of the grey box. If it breaks higher the upside target is the 618 Fib. Above that a move to the Aug 16th high is possible. Note that the June contract is rolling over to Sept so the continuous contract prices have been adjusted.