ETH/USDT :Wave 5 Drop to 4300–Rebound Rally to 4600 Before Crash

thereum has likely completed a 5-wave impulsive rally from 1380 → 4780, with the channel break confirming a larger correction in progress.
Currently, price is unfolding Wave A of an ABC NeoWave structure, subdividing into 5 smaller waves.

⸻

🔹 Wave Count Breakdown
• Wave 1: Sharp drop to ~4335
• Wave 2: 61.8% rebound to 4463
• Wave 3: Extended selloff (161.8% of W1) → 4335
• Wave 4: Shallow retrace (~38.2% W3) → 4463
• Wave 5 (in progress): Targeting 4300–4270 (1.618 Fib + channel floor)

👉 Monowave count (~45–55) sits perfectly inside NeoWave’s 34–89 range → confirming impulsive character of this Wave A.

⸻

🔹 Next Path Scenarios
1. Wave A completion → Short-term bottom around 4300 (confluence of Fib + channel).
2. Wave B rebound → Relief rally toward 4460–4600 (38.2–50% retrace of A). Likely a sharp ABC bounce that traps late shorts.
3. Wave C decline → Resumption of downtrend toward 3800–4000, with risk of an extended drop to 3500 if momentum accelerates.

⸻

🔹 Technical Clues
• Fib structure: Textbook alternation (W2 deep / W4 shallow).
• RSI divergence at lows → exhaustion signals.
• Dominance context: USDT.D rebounding + BTC.D >60% → capital rotation suggests ETH downside risk remains elevated.

⸻

🔹 Trade Setup (Bias: Short with rebound play)
• Entry (short): Below 4400 on BOS confirmation (break of 4335).
• Targets: TP1 = 4300 (end of A), TP2 = 3800 (post-B wave).
• Rebound long: Consider 4300 → 4600 scalp if Wave A completes.
• Stops: Above 4463 (W4 high) for shorts / below 4300 for longs.
• Risk mgmt: 1–2% position size; trail stops along channel midline.

⸻

⚠️ Volatility remains extreme. Manage risk strictly—crypto psychology flips fast.