Scenarios and triggers (not financial advice)
A) Basic - balance/rotation to the averages at 4.49-4.46 with an attempt to hold the uptrend.
Why basic: ADX is high and CMF>0 (the trend is alive), but MACD-hist is negative, OI↓, and we are close to the upper edges of BB/KC → more often, the market "breathes" down to the averages before continuing.
• Trigger: 4h-close < 4 486/4 464 (BB-Mid/KC-Mid) with RSI < 60 or weakening of the MACD histogram.
• Targets: 4 475 → 4 324; with inertia, 4 342 (POC)/4 140 (VAL).
• Cancel: quick redemption and consolidation above 4 592–4 604.
B) Continuation of the upward trend (accepting above the high zone).
• Trigger: holding above 4 55x–4 56x and 4h-closing > 4 618.9 with a buffer ≈ +0.1·ATR ≈ +7$ → > 4 626, while OBV z50 ≥ 0 and OI ROC(5) ≥ 0.
• Goals: 4 686 (LVN) → 4 727 (VAH) → 4 808 (LVN).
• Invalidator: return < 4 591 with an increase in OI on a red candle.
C) Acceleration downwards (explicit rejection from above).
• Trigger: false takeaway 4,591-4,619 (long upper shadows) + confirmed bearish divergences of RSI/MFI/OBV and OI↑ on the decline.
• Goals: 4 486 → 4 464 → 4 324; if weak, test 4,342 (POC) and only then 4,140 (VAL).
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Tactics (example of logic)
• Reversal long: zones 4 486 / 4 464 with signs of demand (candle reaction, CMF≥0, OBV z50≥0). Targets: 4 592–4 604 → 4 619; stop under 4 464 − 0.3×ATR ≈ 20$.
• Impulse long: after fixing > 4 626. Partial fixation at 4 686, then 4 727/4 808; trail on EMA20/KC-Mid.
• Contra-trend short: only when 4 591–4 619 is rejected + divergence and MACD-hist↓, OI↑ on the fall. Targets: 4,486 → 4,464 → 4,424–4,324; stop at 4,626–4,635.
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Briefly: what to expect
The trend is strong (ADX), the demand is positive (CMF), but the momentum is cooling, the OI is decreasing, and the price is stretched towards VWAP/BB-Upper. I expect a basic balance/rotation to 4.49→4.46, after which the market will decide:
• Fix above 4 626 → chance for 4 686 → 4 727 → 4 808.
• Fall below 4 464 → 4 324, with weakness at 4 342 (POC)/4 140 (VAL).
A) Basic - balance/rotation to the averages at 4.49-4.46 with an attempt to hold the uptrend.
Why basic: ADX is high and CMF>0 (the trend is alive), but MACD-hist is negative, OI↓, and we are close to the upper edges of BB/KC → more often, the market "breathes" down to the averages before continuing.
• Trigger: 4h-close < 4 486/4 464 (BB-Mid/KC-Mid) with RSI < 60 or weakening of the MACD histogram.
• Targets: 4 475 → 4 324; with inertia, 4 342 (POC)/4 140 (VAL).
• Cancel: quick redemption and consolidation above 4 592–4 604.
B) Continuation of the upward trend (accepting above the high zone).
• Trigger: holding above 4 55x–4 56x and 4h-closing > 4 618.9 with a buffer ≈ +0.1·ATR ≈ +7$ → > 4 626, while OBV z50 ≥ 0 and OI ROC(5) ≥ 0.
• Goals: 4 686 (LVN) → 4 727 (VAH) → 4 808 (LVN).
• Invalidator: return < 4 591 with an increase in OI on a red candle.
C) Acceleration downwards (explicit rejection from above).
• Trigger: false takeaway 4,591-4,619 (long upper shadows) + confirmed bearish divergences of RSI/MFI/OBV and OI↑ on the decline.
• Goals: 4 486 → 4 464 → 4 324; if weak, test 4,342 (POC) and only then 4,140 (VAL).
⸻
Tactics (example of logic)
• Reversal long: zones 4 486 / 4 464 with signs of demand (candle reaction, CMF≥0, OBV z50≥0). Targets: 4 592–4 604 → 4 619; stop under 4 464 − 0.3×ATR ≈ 20$.
• Impulse long: after fixing > 4 626. Partial fixation at 4 686, then 4 727/4 808; trail on EMA20/KC-Mid.
• Contra-trend short: only when 4 591–4 619 is rejected + divergence and MACD-hist↓, OI↑ on the fall. Targets: 4,486 → 4,464 → 4,424–4,324; stop at 4,626–4,635.
⸻
Briefly: what to expect
The trend is strong (ADX), the demand is positive (CMF), but the momentum is cooling, the OI is decreasing, and the price is stretched towards VWAP/BB-Upper. I expect a basic balance/rotation to 4.49→4.46, after which the market will decide:
• Fix above 4 626 → chance for 4 686 → 4 727 → 4 808.
• Fall below 4 464 → 4 324, with weakness at 4 342 (POC)/4 140 (VAL).
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.