EURJPY, small inverse H&S

30 ott 2018

Daily shows a good (temp) low formation and on the lower time frame we can see an inverse H&S. It should not drop below that red zone. Target is in that blue circle.


Previous analysis:

30 ott 2018

Nota

We broke the neckline of that H&S already, but the movement has been very slow so there is probably something else going. From the looks of it, the neckline of this inverse H&S will change.
So big chance we will see another small drop to form a new right shoulder for this inverse H&S. It has to stay above that red zone on the left chart. So move stops to that level as well.

31 ott 2018

Nota

So far still moving up, but it is slowing down now. From the looks of it, we will probably still see a small correction down. So taking (partial) profit here is certainly not a bad play and getting back in at lower prices.

31 ott 2018

Nota

The trend line broke and it is moving slowly down now. What we want to see is a move like the blue line, creating a right shoulder.
The first green support has to hold to keep the possible inverse H&S valid. Below the second green support it will probably make a new low.

31 ott 2018

Nota

So made the drop as suspected and have seen a small bounce at the green support zone. If it can get above the 128.00 the chances will increase for it to move even higher and complete the right shoulder for the inverse H&S play. A brake of the low it just made probably means we will drop even more.

1 nov 2018

Nota

So it bounced up following the blue line perfectly to make that good right shoulder. Now it's fighting the neckline, so the fight is not over yet. But it's already a free trade with the (partial) profit we took at the high yesterday and re entered again. Make sure stops are at break even at least.
If the neckline breaks, makes a successful and moves up again , i will double up and risk my profit, trying to catch a big win on a solid pattern.

1 nov 2018

Nota

I am starting to have some doubts about this inverse H&S, because it's starting to look more like a bearish wedge. Because the breakout of that neckline was too weak.

Better to be safe than sorry, 3 options:

Taking profit here
Using the trend line as a stop
or move it towards entry (red zone)

2 nov 2018

Nota

So the neckline never broke, and the bearish wedge got invalidated already. Even though i had some doubts because of the slow breakout, it has followed that blue line to the point and eventually made a good solid bounce up confirming the inverse H&S.

For the ones who have increased the position at the bounce up, i would move the stop to that red zone, just below the neckline. That way average price would still give us some profit. This is next to the profit we already made in the beginning of this trade. So we can not do anything wrong with this one.

5 nov 2018

Nota

I am taking half profit if we break that green support and the other half if we break today's low. Very close to the target now and the rally is slowing down.
Longer term we can see a correction down again, that will probably be my second trade if we see something like that, to go long around that level.

6 nov 2018

Nota

Time to take profit, i am closing 50% now at the target and going to trail stop the rest. The stop for this one will start at that green zone.