EUR/USD underwent a significant directional shift on Wednesday, experiencing a robust bullish momentum that propelled it above the 1.0900 mark for the first time since December 1st. The market focus has now turned to the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) policy announcements, leading the pair into a consolidation phase just below the key 1.0900 level.
Fed Chairman's Dovish Tone:
The sudden bullish reversal in EUR/USD was triggered by heavy selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD) after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell adopted an unexpectedly dovish tone in the post-meeting press conference. Powell's comments reflected a commitment to avoiding the mistake of keeping rates too high for too long, signaling a potential shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy. The Fed's decision to keep the policy rate unchanged, coupled with projections indicating a total of 75 basis points rate reduction in 2024, contributed to the USD's decline.
Market Reaction and ECB Outlook:
In the aftermath of the Fed's dovish stance, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield dipped below 4% for the first time in over four months, and the US Dollar Index lost nearly 1%. With the focus now turning to the ECB's final policy meeting of the year, market participants are anticipating key rates to remain unchanged. Attention will be on revised macroeconomic projections and comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde, which are likely to influence market sentiment.
Potential for EUR Strength:
The current scenario suggests a strengthening EUR, with the possibility of a sustained bullish continuation following the positive economic developments on Wednesday. The dovish stance from the Fed has created a conducive environment for the EUR/USD pair, prompting traders to assess potential long opportunities.
The reversal of bearish momentum and the strong bullish surge in EUR/USD following the Fed's dovish signals have set the stage for a potential shift in the pair's trend. As market participants await the ECB's announcements, vigilance and adaptability will be crucial for traders navigating the evolving landscape of the currency market.
Our preference
Long positions above 1.0840 with targets at 1.0940 & 1.0970 in extension.
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