EUR/USD has recently broken below some key technical levels of support such as 1.2050. Recent USD resilience could wane over the next few days as positioning in euro cleans up. Coming into January, many managers had the reflation bet on, which encompasses the long EURUSD trade. This trade caught them wrong-footed, and many managers squared out during a period of heightened volatility. The risk is now for a move higher in the euro as the consensus position has decreased in size. euro fundamentals remain bullish, albeit with some negativity around vaccine distribution. That said, global risk remains bid, and euro should be no exception to this tone. Across the macro landscape, oil is reaching yearly highs, the 10Y yield in the US is flirting with its recent upper bound, and gold is breaking down. The only signal that doesn't confirm the current reflationary landscape is the dollar. Many are calling this the start of the dollar move, but I would much rather fade this move with a tight stop. EURUSD likely rises to over 1.25 in the next few months. If I am wrong, we have a short stop and we re-asses.
Trade attivo:
Still long. Have trimmed profit at the highs of Bollinger.
Trade chiuso manualmente:
We have reversed our position and like short Euro from the 1.20 level.