EURUSD Short ---- Again

EURUSD Bulls were saved by the US FED FOMC Dovish stance and unchanged rate announcement after EURUSD Bears took out the previous Daily Low at 1.1202. We shot up to 1.1276. Now what ?

it is ECB vs US FED & Trump

-- Mario Draghi & ECB want a weaker EURUSD to deal with Slow growth, Tariffs and Trade war
-- Trump wants a stronger EURO and a weaker USD i.e a higher EURUSD to help US economy
-- Asian Economies want a stronger USD and weaker Asian currencies

-- The problem is that the fundamentals indicate that US Economy is the strongest of all the economies at the moment even though it has started slowing down .

We are looking for a short so long as EURUSD is below Daily SMA200 . If EURUSD enters the breakout area and breaks to the upside . We will enter a long position

Commento:

EUR Futures: further gains appear limited --- By Pablo Piovano of FXstreet.com

According to advanced data from CME Group for EUR futures markets, investors trimmed their open interest positions by nearly 54.5K contracts, the largest single day drop so far this year. In the same direction, volume reversed the previous build and shrunk by more than 77K contracts.

EUR/USD expected to resume the downside
EUR/USD is recovering ground lost in past sessions following the softer mood surrounding the greenback. However, further gains in spot looks limited in light of the sharp drop in both open interest and volume.

Commento:

EURUSD is marching ahead towards 1.1300 region without any resistance at all >look for exhaustion by the EURUSD Bulls to enter a short otherwise enter long if it enters the Breakout area

Commento:

The USD selling started with New York session after FOMC interest rate decision , then Asia Session followed and now its the London session turn ( Total about 60 pips rally so far) . After London is done , we can evaluate where we are pricewise.

Though EUR Futures say that the upside is limited but let's wait for London session exhaustion by the EURUSD Bulls before a short. If the EURUSD Bulls continue the buying EUR then we will cancel the short and reverse to a long

Commento:

Today's Forex movement is mostly due to USD weakness across the board and has nothing to do with any fundamentals that drive those major particular currencies. We are now approaching 1.1300 . The Selling of USD has picked up a little as London Market goes into full swing.

Is this a one day event rally or EURUSD Bull Trap or persistent USD weakness? Not even Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan FX analyst can agree on the direction of USD in the Short-term

Commento:

EURUSD is firing on all cylinders towards 1.1300 level, most likely we will take it out and be above 1.1300 since the moment seems to be strong

Commento:

Total Collapse of USD is epic across the board -- it took 7 days to go from 96.44 to 97.78 but it took only less 18 hours to drop back 97.78 to now 96.65 because of FOMC dovish stance

Causing the EURUSD to rally to 1.1300 from 1.1225 in less than 18 hours

Commento:

we hit 1.1318 but could not hold on. So what now ? EURUSD collapsed after that. An indication of Broad USD weakness and not Fundamental changing.

If you went Long around 1.1250 then exited above 1.1300 and then went Short anywhere above 1.1300 level that's fantastic . The fundamentals show continued slow down in EURO Zone .

So a short would be the less risky bet

Commento:

at the moment please stay out of EURUSD, The USD weak across the board meaning we should enter LONG but the long does not have any conviction . The Institutions do not seem to be onboard so its just wise to wait until they show their hand today or tomorrow

Commento:

Not sure about being Long until 1.1340 area , i don't see anything on the institutions side or Futures indicating that we approach the daily SMA200 at around 1.1352 and break it. Recall , that the only reason , EURUSD rallied was because of USD Weakness Across the board in the last 24 hours due to FOMC unchanged interest rate announcement with Dovish stance but the EU Zone fundamental data is getting worse, GERMANY, FRANCE and ITALY are in Technical recession plus ECB wants the EURO lower in order to help them on Trade, Tariffs and lessen the impact of slow growth. ECB is also dangling another round of QE and EU interest rate cut which are Negative to EURO in the short-term

Commento:

For today only , Thursday 20th June 2019 at 1:30 Pm EST , At this moment, To understand how bad the USD weakness has been in the last 24 hours . Take a look at any Major currency

EURUSD = + 70 pips
GBPUSD = + 62 pips
USDJPY = - 70 pips
USDCHF = - 126 pips
USDCAD = - 83 pips
AUDUSD = + 39 pips
NZDUSD = + 50 pips

This looks to me to be similar to " BUY the Rumors, SELL the News" reaction in most cases . So we did buy the EURUSD on the FED News but then now it seems might be a good time to SELL on fundamentals

Commento:

The moment of TRUTH is upon us. EURUSD is the only currency stronger than the Dollar today. We are approaching the upside breakout region .

At this point ,ONLY enter a short if it fails to break the SMA200 at 1.1350 area and collapse down to below 1.1300 .

LONG seems to be in the cards if breaks to the upside of 1.1350 level

Commento:

we have officially broken the SMA200 at 1.1352 and now LONG comes into play