ASX:EXL - Bullish revenge in 2020?

31 gen 2020

After forming a double top at the end of May last year, ASX:EXL has been bled down - dropping 90% (!!) from its all time highs. The bulls stepped in, providing some relief with 4 straight weeks of buying early this year. Can this be sustained?

Here's why I'm bullish:

• Volume: High volume week, pushing the OBV above the 13EMA. "Volume precedes price", aka "Follow the money"
  
• Structure: Small inverse H/S on the daily, potentially forming a larger inverse H/S.
  
• Divergence: Confirmed histogram div, willy stupid, RSI making higher high.
  
• Weekly gap: >4% unaccounted for at the $4.5 price.
  
• Trend break.
  

Zooming into the 1D chart



My prediction is we range for the next month, filling in the VPVR void and providing opportunities to accumulate for astute traders. This range would give us a larger inverse H/S, providing the bullish spring needed to begin regaining some of that 90% drop from last year.

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14 feb 2020

Nota

Hanging on by a thread. We either dump heavily to new lows or rebound next week, filling in the gap marked by the green box.

21 feb 2020

Nota

Still on knife's edge. Three consecutive weeks of selling on declining volume with a gap left above. Textbook double bottom if we hold this level next week.

LTF (4hr) showing oversold with a confirmed bullish divergence in histogram. Due for a bounce.

4hr:

1W:

24 feb 2020

Trade chiuso: stop raggiunto

Strong fear today in the weekly open amid worldwide Coronavirus concerns - tipping it to continue all week. Given all the uncertainty in the markets and fresh all time lows below us, I've cut the trade. Could potentially form a double bottom here with a SFP but I'm not willing to hold long enough to find out.

Buy: 0.795
Sell: 0.500 (-36.7%)