2024-08-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Morning and I hope you are well.
No update yesterday after hours since I was so sick I just had to sleep. That was the first miss since almost a year ago or 202 publishes if you will. Update would not have been any different since Globex did not move anything much.
tl;dr
Indexes - Most markets moved sideways so I will not pretend there is much value to extract out of the price action. We will have a bigger breakout soon and I have absolutely no idea to which side since I am not a fortune teller or a social media jack who posts pictures with a Lambo. They seem to be very sure of every move the market makes. You decide which is more reasonable.
dax futures
comment: Market is staying above 18600 but 18700 is resistance. Will probably see a breakout today or tomorrow. No deeper meaning in this sideways chop. I lean slightly bearish to get below 18600 again.
current market cycle: huge trading range
key levels: 17000 - 19000
bull case: Bulls are too weak to push above 18700 but keeping it above 18600 makes the market completely neutral. Bulls want to stay inside the bull channel which leads to 19000. Not much more to it. Play the range.
Invalidation is below 18600.
bear case: Bears also too weak to get below 18600 and currently the 1h 20ema is big support. Bears need a strong close below 18600 to have any argument on their side.
Invalidation is above 18720.
short term: Overall more bullish than bearish but the 100 point range is as neutral as it gets. I scalp and wait for the breakout.
medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. —unchanged since early July
current swing trade: Nope.
trade of the day: Buying near 18600 since it was support many many times.
No update yesterday after hours since I was so sick I just had to sleep. That was the first miss since almost a year ago or 202 publishes if you will. Update would not have been any different since Globex did not move anything much.
tl;dr
Indexes - Most markets moved sideways so I will not pretend there is much value to extract out of the price action. We will have a bigger breakout soon and I have absolutely no idea to which side since I am not a fortune teller or a social media jack who posts pictures with a Lambo. They seem to be very sure of every move the market makes. You decide which is more reasonable.
dax futures
comment: Market is staying above 18600 but 18700 is resistance. Will probably see a breakout today or tomorrow. No deeper meaning in this sideways chop. I lean slightly bearish to get below 18600 again.
current market cycle: huge trading range
key levels: 17000 - 19000
bull case: Bulls are too weak to push above 18700 but keeping it above 18600 makes the market completely neutral. Bulls want to stay inside the bull channel which leads to 19000. Not much more to it. Play the range.
Invalidation is below 18600.
bear case: Bears also too weak to get below 18600 and currently the 1h 20ema is big support. Bears need a strong close below 18600 to have any argument on their side.
Invalidation is above 18720.
short term: Overall more bullish than bearish but the 100 point range is as neutral as it gets. I scalp and wait for the breakout.
medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. —unchanged since early July
current swing trade: Nope.
trade of the day: Buying near 18600 since it was support many many times.
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