TayFx

A Macroeconomic Perspective for Diverging Marketplaces

QUANDL:FRED/DFII5   FRED/DFII5
Powell's admission that he's not even thinking about, thinking about, thinking about raising interest rates means there's no possible scenario under which the Fed would raise rates. No matter how low the dollar falls or high gold goes, the Fed will be late again. I suspect the mmimd or lower 80s the the DXY is on the way. This is based on clear-cut macroeconomic data that is currently devaluing the dollar naturally as it should in an economy that continues to inflate, whilst remaining capped in terms of nominal (real) GDP. The unemployment outlook is getting bleaker as new weekly jobless claims were not only above 1 million for the 19th consecutive week, but with yesterday's 1.434m print, they are now higher for the 2nd week in a row. The "recovery" has already ended, and the relapse has already begun.

20:15:02 ( UTC )
Fri Jul 31, 2020

Declinazione di responsabilità

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