FSLR (First Solar Inc.) | High-Conviction Recovery Play

Published by WaverVanir International LLC | 06/12/2025

FSLR has reclaimed key structure after sweeping a weak low and entering a high-volume discount zone (~$120–135). Price has aggressively surged, forming internal BOS and CHoCH patterns—confirming a liquidity reversal and positioning for a move toward premium supply levels.

🔍 Technical Framework:

✅ Smart Money CHoCH → BOS confirms directional shift

🔵 0.618–0.786 retracement from recent impulse has been respected

🟣 Short-term equilibrium sits around $198.87 — first major resistance

🎯 Long-term target: $261.45 (aligned with strong high & 1.786 Fib extension)

📉 Risk Management & Trade Idea:

Ideal entry zone: $162–$170

Stop-loss idea: Below $148 to protect structure

TP1: $198

TP2 (stretch): $261.45

📈 Macro Catalyst Watch:

U.S. solar investment incentives (IRA policy continuation) ☀️

Semiconductor demand for solar manufacturing tech 🧠⚡

International solar adoption across EM markets

📊 Probability Outlook:

Bullish continuation to $198+: 70%

Push toward $261 zone by Q4 2025: 45%

Rejection back into $145–150: 15%

Volume confirms smart money intent. Pullbacks offer asymmetric entries if structure holds.

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