GBPJPY: Day 3 breakout traders long!

7 nov

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“Trade setups, not movements”

1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)

• Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
  
• Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
  
• Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week
  
• Thursday DAY 2 ✅
  
• Friday DAY 3 Closing Range
  

2. SIGNAL DAY

• First Red Day
  
• First Green Day
  
• 3 Days Long Breakout ✅
  
• 3 Days Short Breakout
  
• Inside Day
  

3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE

• Pump&Dump
  
• Dump&Pump ✅
  
• Frontside ✅
  
• Backside
  

4. THESIS:

• Long: this is currently my main thesis at the moment, the market itself is still inside the previous weekly range, but in the new week is pumping higher making constantly higher highs and higher lows. Day 3 breakout traders long is a signal that depending on the template can explode in the direction of the trend or reversal. However, yesterday the market closed out of balance and today it can still keep going higher targeting the previous HOW, completing then 2 weeks of dump and pump template. Today, Asia placed a higher high into the yesterday HOD and is currently retesting the most recent low. FOMC and other news are in schedule for the day, but if the price will consolidated around the current level, I would be willing to take this long opportunity for 100+ pip.
  
  
• Short: at the moment I'm not interested in the short scenario, unless the market will pump back up into the closing price of yesterday, consolidating for a short trade opportunity which I will consider only a scalp, eventually back into the current LOD.
  

Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni

7 nov

Nota

This the scenario I would take in consideration for a buy low opportunity, and remember, NEWS are scheduled today, and FOMC later on at 2pm NYT

7 nov

Nota

GBP news at 7am NYT gave a nice burst back into closing price of yesterday. This is a level that can be very reactive, I won't be interested in any long at the moment, and if you entered this market you must be at least at break even!

8 nov

Nota

Giving a quick read back to the short thesis, I was talking about a potential scalping if the market was going to consolidating into the Wed closing price, something that actually happened (look the pic below)


Today, Friday, in the big template we have the market that closed as first red day and potentially continuing the down move back into the LOW, if the market set up for a short

Weekly template:

Daily template:

8 nov

Nota

Not perfectly setup, myself I didn't take it