Hedge Funds: Strong Dollar, Short Bonds
Hedge funds are intensifying their positions in the final quarter. They are doubling down on two major trades: shorting U.S. Treasury bonds and betting on a strengthening dollar. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reveals record short positions in two-year Treasury bond futures and a surge in bets on a rising dollar. Funds are capitalizing on the yield spread between cash bonds and futures contracts, while also safeguarding against potential market disruptions. Additionally, they are decreasing bets on the euro and yen, anticipating a weaker yen. These strategic moves have led to profitable outcomes, marked by rising yields and a strengthening dollar.
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