DAX week 21

29 mag 2021

Hello everyone,

This week, I offer my analysis of the movements of GER30 during the week and my outlook for next week.
Have nice reading and be pleased to comment if you want.

First, some warnings:
Please remember that you can have losses while trading.
Thus, always trade with a trading plan.
I wanted to share this link with you:
babypips.com/trading/5-lessons-traders-learned-after-a-year-of-forex
It is a very interesting article. Moreover, you have also a complete free trading academy on this website in order to help you in managing your risk if you need it.

So, what happens last week?
First, I am really sorry but I don’t know why GER30 was open on Monday…
Tuesday, even if GER30 rises up a lot on Monday while DAX was closed, the friendly OPA between Vonovia and Deutsche Wohnen has helped to maintain the level. After the euphoria, some take profits occurred which explained the south direction.
Wednesday was a waiting day with also some take profits.
Thursday, facing the good news on US Initial Jobless Claim, the market went almost flat because currently it is a good news for the US economy but not for the FED potential tapering so everyone was waiting for inflation.
Finally on Friday, the US inflation was still around 3% and it wasn’t judge as a problem at the moment because we are still on the FED line, moreover, Biden is preparing a new public budget (6000 billions $) for October (it is seen as a good news at the moment… to be continued).

This week, I took the opportunity given by the end of the fall to close some of my positions. And I opened two new positions on the way up

My perspective for next week:
- 20%: GER30 rise to is top 15600 and don’t go higher;
- 20%: GER30 rise over is top and stop at 15660 ;
- 40%: GER30 stay in the range 15412 - 15550;
- 20%: GER30 fall under 15412 and stay under it;

What to follow next week?
Globally:
- Indian variant is spreading all around Europe;
- Inflation: the rise of petrol (OIL to follow accurately) and other raw material;
- The US 10 years interest rates (which could also have an impact on NSDQ100);
- The transaction volumes.
Day by day :
- Monday: China Manufacturing PM, OCDE Perspectives, German CPI;
- Tuesday:
- Manufacturing PMI: Japan, China, India, Russia, France, Germany, Euro zone, UK, Brazil and US;
- Euro zone CPI;
- German Unemployment rate and Eurozone unemployment rate;
- OPEP + meeting;
- Wednesday: German Retail Sales;
- Thursday:
- Non manufacturing PMI: Japan, China, India, Russia, France, Germany, Euro zone, UK and US;
- US: ADP non farm employment change, initial jobless claims & US Crude Oil;
- Friday:
- G7 meeting ;
- FED and ECB speech;
- US non farm payroll;

This week I want also to share with you the current top line I am using for choosing some of my positions. If you see the current red line in the graph, for the last 3 weeks, each time GER30 touched it, then it falls.

I wish you a good trading week,

Please feel free to ask me questions, I will be glad to connect with you over the comments or by private messages.
Stay safe,
Alexandre