Shorting gold till price action fills in 'gap' at ~US$1,835

14 dic 2023

"Gap fill"; formed out of 'fear' the gap acts as a psychology barrier, boosting investors confidence, in turn investors load up on gold shorts specifically targeting the 'gap', causing supply to increase excessively, supply then becomes significantly greater than demand, and keeps negative pressure on the bull rally. During these conditions, markets have crashed '8 out of 10' times. If you had a chance of winning US$1,000,000 and the odds of you winning were 8-10, would you take it? I would..

"Don't fight the fed"; Jerome Powell insinuated cuts are coming 'as soon as March 2024', but yesterday decided to 'leave rates steady'. US10Y widely considered a benchmark for the bond market hit ~5% following the previous 'rate hike', so believe it's very possible and probable the US10Y can shoot back up prior to next rate decision. Gold bears no yield therefore doesn't generate any income for the investor.

16 dic 2023

Nota

Since the beginning of October when the US10Y peaked at 5% and following Powell's decision to leave rates steady, safe haven investors poured their capital into the Treasury market locking in high yields. Consequently, bond market rallied higher while yields declined. As of today, the US10 is now considered to be over-bought, and the yield is holding at a 5 month low which is relatively close to the 45 week average. Given the opportunity, Treasury investors are selling off their over-priced bonds, and looking for one last opportunity to lock in a high yield precedent to the Fed's cutting rates mid 2024.