🔶 Intermarket Analysis: Bitcoin / Gold / USD – Mid-2026 Projection
Macro Context
Based on a cross-asset analysis of BTC/USD, GOLD/USD, and the BTC/Gold ratio, we can identify a potential capital rotation phase between digital and tangible stores of value.
Currently:
• BTC/USD ≈ $110,900
• Gold/USD ≈ $4,200/oz
• BTC/Gold ≈ 26
I have projection that by mid-2026, BTC will trade around $75,000, and the BTC/Gold ratio will decline toward 16. This implies a significant relative strength shift from Bitcoin toward Gold.
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1️⃣ BTC/USD Technical Structure
• The chart shows a strong uptrend support line from the 2020 low.
• Price recently rejected near the $120K all-time high, forming a local top.
• The confluence zone around $70–75K (previous resistance, now support) aligns with the potential pullback target — the orange ascending trendline confirms this zone.
• This area could represent the next accumulation base before any renewed bullish continuation toward $130–150K in the longer term.
→ Mid-term projection: retrace to 70–75K
→ long-term outlook: consolidation, followed by re-acceleration if liquidity improves.
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2️⃣ BTC/Gold Ratio Analysis
• Currently at 26.3, this pair shows a clear descending momentum since the 2021 peak.
• The chart suggests a continuation toward the support band between 14–16, matching previous cycle lows.
• Historically, every test of this range coincided with a strong rebound in Gold and a temporary cooling phase in Bitcoin.
• The projected ratio decline from 26 → 16 indicates that Gold will outperform Bitcoin by roughly 40% in the same period.
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3️⃣ Gold/USD
• Gold recently broke out from its multi-year consolidation and is now trading around $4,200/oz, approaching the Fibonacci 3.618 extension near $4,680–$4,700.
• This technical level coincides with the implied fair value derived from the BTC/Gold ratio forecast:
Gold = BTC / (BTC/Gold) = 75,000 / 16 ≈ 4700$
In percentage terms:
• BTC may drop ≈ −31% from current levels.
• Gold may rise ≈ +12% nominally, potentially +15–18% when adjusted for continued USD devaluation.
→ Target zone: $4,680–$4,700/oz by mid-2026
→ Corresponds with Fibonacci 3.618 extension on the quarterly timeframe.
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📊 Intermarket Conclusion
• The BTC/Gold ratio breakdown historically precedes reallocation toward safe assets.
• The forecast suggests a moderate BTC correction coupled with a gold appreciation, while the dollar continues its steady erosion in purchasing power.
• Gold may reach ~$4,700/oz, aligning perfectly with both Fibonacci and ratio-based projections.
• BTC remains in a long-term bull trend, but relative outperformance shifts temporarily toward Gold until new liquidity waves arrive.
Macro Context
Based on a cross-asset analysis of BTC/USD, GOLD/USD, and the BTC/Gold ratio, we can identify a potential capital rotation phase between digital and tangible stores of value.
Currently:
• BTC/USD ≈ $110,900
• Gold/USD ≈ $4,200/oz
• BTC/Gold ≈ 26
I have projection that by mid-2026, BTC will trade around $75,000, and the BTC/Gold ratio will decline toward 16. This implies a significant relative strength shift from Bitcoin toward Gold.
⸻
1️⃣ BTC/USD Technical Structure
• The chart shows a strong uptrend support line from the 2020 low.
• Price recently rejected near the $120K all-time high, forming a local top.
• The confluence zone around $70–75K (previous resistance, now support) aligns with the potential pullback target — the orange ascending trendline confirms this zone.
• This area could represent the next accumulation base before any renewed bullish continuation toward $130–150K in the longer term.
→ Mid-term projection: retrace to 70–75K
→ long-term outlook: consolidation, followed by re-acceleration if liquidity improves.
⸻
2️⃣ BTC/Gold Ratio Analysis
• Currently at 26.3, this pair shows a clear descending momentum since the 2021 peak.
• The chart suggests a continuation toward the support band between 14–16, matching previous cycle lows.
• Historically, every test of this range coincided with a strong rebound in Gold and a temporary cooling phase in Bitcoin.
• The projected ratio decline from 26 → 16 indicates that Gold will outperform Bitcoin by roughly 40% in the same period.
⸻
3️⃣ Gold/USD
• Gold recently broke out from its multi-year consolidation and is now trading around $4,200/oz, approaching the Fibonacci 3.618 extension near $4,680–$4,700.
• This technical level coincides with the implied fair value derived from the BTC/Gold ratio forecast:
Gold = BTC / (BTC/Gold) = 75,000 / 16 ≈ 4700$
In percentage terms:
• BTC may drop ≈ −31% from current levels.
• Gold may rise ≈ +12% nominally, potentially +15–18% when adjusted for continued USD devaluation.
→ Target zone: $4,680–$4,700/oz by mid-2026
→ Corresponds with Fibonacci 3.618 extension on the quarterly timeframe.
⸻
📊 Intermarket Conclusion
• The BTC/Gold ratio breakdown historically precedes reallocation toward safe assets.
• The forecast suggests a moderate BTC correction coupled with a gold appreciation, while the dollar continues its steady erosion in purchasing power.
• Gold may reach ~$4,700/oz, aligning perfectly with both Fibonacci and ratio-based projections.
• BTC remains in a long-term bull trend, but relative outperformance shifts temporarily toward Gold until new liquidity waves arrive.
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Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.
Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.