Gold (XAUUSD)Long
Gold Forecast Ahead of the US NFP Report
Fundamental Analysis: There are many factors Many factors and supportive reports play a role behind the job market report, especially the NFP report. That's why it is hard to figure out how will be the upcoming report.
But ten economic reports that analysts and economists use to guess the upcoming NFP reports. So let's check them out.
*Challenger Job Cuts: This report is neutral. It Doesn't change much more than before.
*Initial Jobless Claims: The previous report was positive. So, it may have a positive impact on today's NFP.
*Continuing Jobless Claims: The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment decreased by 134,000 to 1,628,000. This report printed negative previously. So, this report may negatively impact today's NFP.
*ISM manufacturing PMI: The last report was positive.
*ISM Service PMI: The last report was positive.
*UMCC Index: UMCC index dropped from 70.6 to 67.2. I mean, it printed negative. So, this may negatively impact today's NFP.
*Consumer Confidence Index: This report also printed negative.
*ADP: The most helpful indicator for NFP. Most of the time, if ADP prints positive, NFP comes positive. If ADP drop, NFP also drops. Though it doesn't happen 100% of the time, it happens 70%.
Bureau of Labor Statistics Forecast: market forecast is also a valuable tool to understand the NFP is going to be. Today Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasted a negative than the previous report. The last report was 199K, but the market forecasted 110k today. That means it has forecasted more damage than before. So, it has a chance to drop the NFP report as well.
So, figuring out most of the fundamental factors, NFP has chances to drop. I have already told you. It is impossible to figure out 100% how the reports will be. But I have seen from my previous experience that these 10 reports most of the time works.
Technical Analysis: IF NFP PRINTS NEGATIVE, THEN THE FORECAST AND BELOW 100K, Gold will go up, and firstly it will test the $1815.41 price zone. If NFP prints less than 50k, our target to the upside is the 1828/1829 price zone.
In my view, this is the possible scenario for today's NFP.
On the other hand, if NFP prints positive, Gold initially will test $1800. If it prints more than 150k, Gold may test the 1792/1790 price zone.
If NFP prints super positive like more than 200k Gold will drop nearly $1780 price zone.
Is there any chance that NFP may print positive?
Of course, I have repeatedly said many factors are related to NFP. However, most of the related reports say today's NFP may FALL than forecast. But ISM manufacturing and service report was printed positive. These two indicators are essential for NFP, and prediction is too low. So, it can beat the low forecast.
But ten economic reports that analysts and economists use to guess the upcoming NFP reports. So let's check them out.
*Challenger Job Cuts: This report is neutral. It Doesn't change much more than before.
*Initial Jobless Claims: The previous report was positive. So, it may have a positive impact on today's NFP.
*Continuing Jobless Claims: The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment decreased by 134,000 to 1,628,000. This report printed negative previously. So, this report may negatively impact today's NFP.
*ISM manufacturing PMI: The last report was positive.
*ISM Service PMI: The last report was positive.
*UMCC Index: UMCC index dropped from 70.6 to 67.2. I mean, it printed negative. So, this may negatively impact today's NFP.
*Consumer Confidence Index: This report also printed negative.
*ADP: The most helpful indicator for NFP. Most of the time, if ADP prints positive, NFP comes positive. If ADP drop, NFP also drops. Though it doesn't happen 100% of the time, it happens 70%.
Bureau of Labor Statistics Forecast: market forecast is also a valuable tool to understand the NFP is going to be. Today Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasted a negative than the previous report. The last report was 199K, but the market forecasted 110k today. That means it has forecasted more damage than before. So, it has a chance to drop the NFP report as well.
So, figuring out most of the fundamental factors, NFP has chances to drop. I have already told you. It is impossible to figure out 100% how the reports will be. But I have seen from my previous experience that these 10 reports most of the time works.
Technical Analysis: IF NFP PRINTS NEGATIVE, THEN THE FORECAST AND BELOW 100K, Gold will go up, and firstly it will test the $1815.41 price zone. If NFP prints less than 50k, our target to the upside is the 1828/1829 price zone.
In my view, this is the possible scenario for today's NFP.
On the other hand, if NFP prints positive, Gold initially will test $1800. If it prints more than 150k, Gold may test the 1792/1790 price zone.
If NFP prints super positive like more than 200k Gold will drop nearly $1780 price zone.
Is there any chance that NFP may print positive?
Of course, I have repeatedly said many factors are related to NFP. However, most of the related reports say today's NFP may FALL than forecast. But ISM manufacturing and service report was printed positive. These two indicators are essential for NFP, and prediction is too low. So, it can beat the low forecast.
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