HYPE — How to Combine Fibonacci, VWAP and Market Structure

29 giu

After an explosive +392% rally in just 70 days — from $9.298 to a peak of $45.8 — HYPE has entered a consolidation range as expected. Structurally, this appears to be a 5-wave impulse now transitioning into a corrective ABC pattern. Based on current structure, we may now be forming wave B.

What’s Unfolding Now?

A potential Head & Shoulders pattern is developing, with price currently working on the right shoulder. The $40 mark stands out as a key resistance — both technically and psychologically:

• 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the down move sits at $40.108
  
• Structural resistance from prior highs
  
• Ideal area for a short rejection
  

🎯 Short Setup:

• Entry: Laddered short between 0.618 ($40.108) and 0.786 ($42.611)
  
• Stop-Loss: Above $44 (after rejection adjust to entry)
  
• Target: $28–$27 zone
  
• R:R potential: 1:3 up to 1:9 depending on entry quality
  

📍 Why $28–$27 Is Key Support:

• 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of entire +392% rally sits at $27.549
  
• Anchored VWAP from the rally origin ($9.298) aligns around this zone
  
• Weekly & Monthly S/R convergence
  
• VAH (Value Area High)
  
• 0.618 Fibonacci Speed Fan also aligns as dynamic support
  
• Fair Value Gap (FVG) lies in this region
  
• Weekly 21 EMA at $28.05/Weekly 21 SMA at $24.10 — both key moving averages providing layered support and trend structure
  

📐 Bonus Confluence Insight:

If this is indeed wave B, then projecting a 0.786/1.0 Trend-Based Fib Extension from wave A aligns well with the 0.5 fib retracement at $27.5.

📚 Educational Insight:

Stacking confluences such as Fibonacci retracements, anchored VWAPs, volume zones, EMA/SMA levels, and harmonic structures helps identify high-probability zones where smart money is likely to act. These levels become even more powerful when they align across multiple tools and timeframes. Always confirm with price action.

_________________________________

💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment!
Want breakdowns of other charts? Leave your requests below.

1 lug

Nota

📉 HYPE Update

As mapped out earlier, HYPE entered the golden pocket resistance zone between $40–$41, tapping the weekly level with precision before sharply rejecting, now already down -10% from that key zone.

So what’s next? Let’s revisit the full short trade idea and confirm why the $28–$26 range remains the high-probability target area.

🔎 Why $26–$28 is Our Downside Target:

1. Liquidity Below $30
There’s a clear cluster of liquidity under $30. It’s a magnet zone where stop-losses from longs are resting, making it a prime area for price to sweep.

2. Fair Value Gap (FVG)
There’s an FVG with imbalance in this zone that has yet to be filled. Markets love to rebalance these inefficiencies.

3. Trend-Based Fib Extension (TBFE)
When applying the TBFE from the initial impulse, the 1.0 extension lands at $26.188, marking a classic ABC target level.

4. Anchored VWAP
The anchored VWAP aligns exactly with the $26 zone. This is a dynamic level that institutions often use to gauge fair price — a strong layer of confluence.

5. Developing Point of Control (POC)
Volume analysis shows that the developing POC (area of highest traded volume) is clustering at this same level.

🆕 Indicator Spotlight: Chandelier Exit Oscillator by LuxAlgo

LuxAlgo just dropped a new indicator, the Chandelier Exit Oscillator offers another dynamic perspective. On the daily chart for HYPE, it confirms this resistance rejection and gives further confidence in our downside bias. It’s worth keeping an eye on how this new tool complements your trade management and trend shifts.