Enter Long here - ING - Third flagpole in the making

24 ago 2020

I have been following this stock since the crash in march 2020.

I always pay attention when Dutch bank stocks tank. Main reason is that Dutch are super conservative when it comes to banking (in comparison to USA especially) and regulate the sector well. This is the biggest Dutch bank and it's chart is very similar with the nr2 ( ABN ) which I also have opened a position in.

As you can see in this chart the bounce off the last top level resistance confirms we are out of that bullflag channel and in a good position to make another bullrun.

The third flagpole since march should start right here and the rally has already begun today.

I believe the weak hands folded last friday and there is no selling power left. Onwards and upwards from here then!

My projection shows a significant upside to be reached in 11 days give or take (exact timing is always hard and will depend also on the broader market behaviour).

I will keep following the developments of this stock and edit this post if we see major deviation from the current trajectory.

Why you cannot go wrong with this stock long term IMO (even if this scenario fails):

-Leading Dutch bank that accelerated it's digital strategy by being ready with their tools and platform and by closing most of their physical offices (huge savings) during Q3.
-Well funded well capitalized banks are safe investments and core to the economy
-Q2 losses were lower than expected and revenue was higher than anticipated (see news)
-Q1 and Q2 all major COVID, oil, and fine related losses were booked and Q3 expectations are very positive.

25 ago 2020

Nota

today is looking very good with a stellar jump of 4% in the morning this is developing very nicely into a strong bullrun to a new high.

28 ago 2020

Trade attivo

Playing out the scenario as expected so far.

We are in a confirmed bull run, the fundamentals look very good and key toplevel resistance levels were punctured.

The next target is around 7.10-7.45 we are looking to break that top to confirm we are on our way to the middle of the third flagpole.

I do not set stop-loss as they might get triggered unexpectedly, and I believe fundamentally this stock is undervalued and worth holding on to.

Even if this bullrun breaks up in an unforeseen way (chance of that is low) we believe this stock will double in value in a year from now. ING is set up very well for digital banking, are financially healthy, and have a low exposure to high risk sectors.

If you are late to the party this is still a very good time to buy for long term, I am expecting this run to deliver another 30% increase in value from where we are now.

My strategy is to time the top of this flagpole and take profits, then cash back in after the 18% correction, which you can see has followed the last 2 flagpoles like clockwork.

2 set 2020

Trade attivo

trading sideways for several days now in a tightening pattern. Not the move we expected but not a breakdown of our scenario yet either. We remain long but will have to revise our timeline, lacking of volume and hesitation in the market might mean we go sideways for several more days before we see another run.

2 set 2020

Trade attivo

One more note: we are still seeing an upwards pattern being printed (higher highs and lower lows) and it looks like this small correction is running out of steam.

4 set 2020

Trade attivo

2 very interesting days. Thursday 3rd sept it was noteworthy that there was a huge market sell-off in USA tech sector, with virtually every big tech stock being in 5-8% decline. While ING did not shed any more value and remained at equalibrium for the week after having given up about 2% since monday.

Today friday 4th sept we saw a good run starting in the early morning bringing us above monday levels and giving us an opportunity to finish the week on a positive note. It does signal that the orignal projection is still valid, but we have to adjust for the time schedule, we will not hit our 11day target and will continue to monitor this as it develops towards the end of september.

7 set 2020

Trade attivo

Clearly there is still plenty of uncertanty in the markets, today ING struggles with volume but is still making lower low's, printing a slow pattern up.

We are now watching for a break of past weeks top.

I like the look of this upward sloping mini triangle we are forming here, it is a tightening pattern. We could reach the end of it within the week.

8 set 2020

Trade attivo

This morning we saw a test of the top level resistance at 7.154, we pierced through in the morning briefly and then saw a quick pullback, which formed a clear lower low. This was great confirmation of our bullish scenario, let's see if she can make a new high in the next days.

8 set 2020

Trade attivo

Looks like we are moving towards the end of this small red triangle box.

9 set 2020

Trade attivo

Ok the pattern we are in (red) is becoming more obvious.



This scenario is still looking strong for a potential break upwards out of the red triangle and making another run towards the top of the blue channel towards the 9.0 euro mark in the coming 2 weeks.

10 set 2020

Trade attivo

We can see the MACD tightening as we appoach the end of the red triangle.

10 set 2020

Nota

I have adjusted my target to 8.76 being a bit more conservative if we measure from the green line (top of the previous channel) with the sideways action.

11 set 2020

Trade attivo

Yesterdays session we pierced through the top of the red triangle which is what we are looking for, the first resistance was broken, and we also saw a nice lower low in the pullback, indicating we are getting ready to break upwards. Volume has slightly increased and the MACD is in a tightening consolidation pattern.

To me this looks like an extremely bullish setup, if I was not already in I would enter long here.

14 set 2020

Trade attivo

Again poking at the toplevel resistance line, looks close to breaking out of this channel

15 set 2020

Trade attivo

Good day today, showing you the daily view here.

We made another lower low today and as you can see we have been pushing against the toplevel resistance almost daily.

RSI around 57-60 zone leaves plenty of room to go up and indicates healthy buying action.

MACD has become so tight it looks like it might cross over and upwards any minute now.

Too me the stock looks ready to pop.

16 set 2020

Trade attivo

Ok today was interesting!

Not what I expected but great nonetheless, my guess is that for those not long yet, this would have been the best buying opportunity you will get before this thing takes off, you might still have a chance tomorrow, but I expect this to move higher quickly.

It looks like a clear bear trap, trying to get the weak hands to fold here by faking a breakout to the bottom of the triangle, however after this move we see this highly compressed red candle that is now left of the selling pressure and we ended up again inside our red triangle. Nothing to worry about!

17 set 2020

Trade attivo

So I had to update my chart a bit, it looks like we are actually going to test the blue support line.

With the previous 2 rally's we also saw a test of the blue line before we took off, I am not sure how I missed it, but it does seem to be accurate, today I have added to my position as we might bounce sooner than expected as ING has done that move a couple of times.

17 set 2020

Trade attivo

yeah, so it all makes sense, just don't understand how I didn't see this coming, anyways, we learn and we move on, up she goes!

18 set 2020

Trade attivo

2 rough days, looks like my original strategy failed as I missed this incoming re-test of support levels, while I had several moments to get out I actually added to my position believing this could not go much lower.

I am quite deep in the red on this trade now, as I believe this to still go up long term so in any case I am holding my position and waiting it out, but I am quite unhappy about my trade strategy on this, I could have made this trade with a lot less risk if I had made a smarter strategy.

We might be on the verge of a rebound up, it looks like inbetween these red lines support should be found. However if not it will be one of my worst trades of the year. I still expect to see a bounce on monday/tuesday next week but my confidence has faded quite a bit due to this re-test down.

23 set 2020

Trade attivo

Everything that could go wrong went wrong on this trade. Bad news on money laundering scandals from years ago, and uncertainty about new lockdowns and COVID in Europe brought the stock down at a very high speed the last days.

If this is random news and bad luck or a timed campaign by a large player to bring down prices is impossible to know, but the timing is of course highly suspicious.

I never trade on just the news and I think we will recover quickly, but my bullish breakout scenario is no longer valid.

5 ott 2020

Trade attivo

There was a nice chance to accumulate last week, now we are in recovery mode, major resistance level is marked in the red zone, if we break through we might re-test the top of the channel next after a brief pullback.

6 ott 2020

Trade attivo

Accumulation time is over, we are shooting up, let's see if we can reach our first resistance target, what happens there will tell us if we can re-test the top of the channel or if we come back down again first. Both scenarios highly possible but I lean towards the bullish scenario with Q3 results coming up there might be a major bull run being triggered from better than expected results in Q3.

7 ott 2020

Trade attivo

So not a bad day for the 2 top Dutch banks today.

After slightly dropping in the morning session the stock slowly crawled back up. I have drawn in the two major resistance zones that I see coming up in the chart.

8 ott 2020

Trade attivo

Looks like a first attempt was made to break through resistance but failed. let's see if there will be a pullback now and a second attempt or if we will see first some consolidation at a lower level. I imagine many traders are taking profits here to reduce their risk, since the bull scenario to go even higher probably will need some sort of catalyst (like Q3 results anticipation).

8 ott 2020

Trade attivo

Tried twice to pass resistance level and failed, then a small sell-off at the end of the day. I played with the idea of cashing in here and re-buying a little lower but I am not convinced enough that it's going back down so I decided to hold and see what tomorrow brings. My worry is to miss out pre-market and see this jump up. To me it looks like it can still go higher even if it pulls back a little here in the next days.

12 ott 2020

Trade attivo

nailed it with the resistance, as you can see we got trapped in the resistance zone and are oscillating the bottom and top of the resistance zone. Let's see if we can get the momentum to break through.

12 ott 2020

Trade attivo

we made a nice higher high outside the resistance line, strong bullish signal

13 ott 2020

Trade attivo

Could not break resistance and pulling back, let's see if it finds a solid bottom around the green dotted line and from there we will probably see another attempt at the resistance area. I don't expect much at this point, news in negative, lockdowns are back, financials are going to suffer a bit more from the covid negativity currently in the news.

23 ott 2020

Trade attivo

Had a nice chance to load up again and now heading for a double top. Let's see if it goes through the resistance this time. We do have Q3 coming up, which we expect to be significantly better than past 2 quarterly results and could cause a rally, however COVID uncertainty is also still there tempering the enthusiasm. Making it short term highly uncertain how this stock will develop. I am carefully optimistic about the next few days.

2 nov 2020

Trade attivo

another drop and rebound, getting ready for Q3 results, looks like it will rally

3 nov 2020

Trade attivo

Interesting rally, financials are volatile and that makes for nice swing trades!

This actually does look more bullish than I expected, I am going to babysit this stock the next few days and sell off if we see a confirmed pullback, hold if we see momentum, volume does look like we might make a new top, the daily marks this as a cross, and that's interesting because we had 2 very strong rally days but RSI and MACD on the daily show potential for more room upwards. Let's see what Q3 reporting will bring us.

5 nov 2020

Trade attivo

Not a very convincing selloff today and an odd move given the very reasonable Q3 results. Some negativity about layoffs in the news which I can't really follow, it was old news and should be good for the valuation.

Anyways, we continue to monitor, see where she wants to go next

6 nov 2020

Trade attivo

called this one, looks like that dip did not follow through and we are crawling up, we could even see a break from past weeks trend if we manage to pierce through the first red layer of resistance in the next week.

9 nov 2020

Trade attivo

Biden president and COVID vaccine from Pfizer are making crazy waves on the stock market. With Tech overvalued as a covid hedge, vaccine news might trigger industry rotation, ING and ABN spiking up 10% today, let's see if this develops futher and let's keep an eye on financials and energy.

10 nov 2020

Trade attivo

We just made a new top and broke a series of key resistance levels like they were nothing, let's see what the new top will be.

10 nov 2020

Trade chiuso manualmente

Decided to close my positions and take my profit. Main reason is that I saw the stock fading during the afternoon and I reached my goal for the year, so I am fine sitting on the sidelines for a bit and waiting for a new entry position. This is bound to pullback as the vaccin news fades.