Technical Analysis:
Rising Wedge formation clearly visible on the 15-min chart, typically a bearish reversal pattern.
Major horizontal resistance at $200.78 — a strong previous breakdown level, now acting as a supply zone.
Plan: Short near $200.78 with stop-loss slightly above the upper wedge boundary (~$202-203).
Target Zones:
First target: ~$190
Second target: ~$185 if momentum increases.
Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) are beginning to show early signs of bearish divergence — momentum fading while price grinds higher.
Fundamental Context (April 28, 2025):
Macro Risk:
Small-caps (Russell 2000) under pressure as investors anticipate a potential slowdown in U.S. GDP growth Q2 2025.
Treasury yields remain elevated → Higher financing costs disproportionately hurt smaller companies (Russell 2000 heavily debt-sensitive).
Earnings Season:
Mixed earnings for small and mid-cap companies; many struggling to beat analyst expectations.
Federal Reserve Outlook:
Futures pricing only a ~12% probability of a rate cut at the May FOMC meeting (CME FedWatch Tool, 2025).
"Higher for longer" interest rate environment is a headwind for IWM.
Market Sentiment:
Risk appetite cooling as VIX (volatility index) starts ticking up from multi-month lows.
Summary:
IWM faces a confluence of technical resistance, a bearish chart pattern, and growing fundamental pressure. Watching closely for rejection at $200.78 to initiate a short position with a measured risk/reward setup.
Hashtags:
#IWM #Russell2000 #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingSetup #ShortSetup #BearishWedge #SmallCaps #StockMarket2025 #MacroAnalysis
Rising Wedge formation clearly visible on the 15-min chart, typically a bearish reversal pattern.
Major horizontal resistance at $200.78 — a strong previous breakdown level, now acting as a supply zone.
Plan: Short near $200.78 with stop-loss slightly above the upper wedge boundary (~$202-203).
Target Zones:
First target: ~$190
Second target: ~$185 if momentum increases.
Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) are beginning to show early signs of bearish divergence — momentum fading while price grinds higher.
Fundamental Context (April 28, 2025):
Macro Risk:
Small-caps (Russell 2000) under pressure as investors anticipate a potential slowdown in U.S. GDP growth Q2 2025.
Treasury yields remain elevated → Higher financing costs disproportionately hurt smaller companies (Russell 2000 heavily debt-sensitive).
Earnings Season:
Mixed earnings for small and mid-cap companies; many struggling to beat analyst expectations.
Federal Reserve Outlook:
Futures pricing only a ~12% probability of a rate cut at the May FOMC meeting (CME FedWatch Tool, 2025).
"Higher for longer" interest rate environment is a headwind for IWM.
Market Sentiment:
Risk appetite cooling as VIX (volatility index) starts ticking up from multi-month lows.
Summary:
IWM faces a confluence of technical resistance, a bearish chart pattern, and growing fundamental pressure. Watching closely for rejection at $200.78 to initiate a short position with a measured risk/reward setup.
Hashtags:
#IWM #Russell2000 #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingSetup #ShortSetup #BearishWedge #SmallCaps #StockMarket2025 #MacroAnalysis
Nota
Nota
DSS note: IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) has broken out of a bull flag and reclaimed the 9EMA and anchored VWAP bands from the April decline. It's up 2.29% on the day and targeting resistance zones between 201.21 and 212.33. Caution is advised.
Trade attivo
Basically going long with earlier day exp, going short 1 month out contracts ;) Nota
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Declinazione di responsabilità
Le informazioni ed i contenuti pubblicati non costituiscono in alcun modo una sollecitazione ad investire o ad operare nei mercati finanziari. Non sono inoltre fornite o supportate da TradingView. Maggiori dettagli nelle Condizioni d'uso.