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Quixilver_stx

Does SPX vs PMI divergence signal upcoming recession?

ISM Manufacturing Index (ISM:MAN_PMI)  
Quixilver_stx  
ISM:MAN_PMI   ISM Manufacturing Index
Beyond Technical Analysis PMI S&P 500 (SPX500) SPX (S&P 500 Index) ISM
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beyondta pmi spx500 spx ism
No, not really. Only 3 of 7 divergences signaled recessions in the last 50 years. Besides, some recessions did not have any divergence.

So data doesn't support the recession is coming thesis.

Red flag -> Divergence with recession following
Green flag -> Divergence w/o recession
? -> No divergence signal before recession

(This post is in response to some comments I received)

Idee correlate

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