#202502 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futures
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Another huge bull surprise last week and we made a higher high above the 2024-10 high 77.38. A measured move target is 78.04 and the high was 77.86. Close is always close enough. I would like to see another try at 78 and another huge rejection for me to short. I do think shorting right now is too early but buying after a 244 point rejection is not good either, since the upside is likely limited. Bulls are still in full control here but the last time we traded above 78 was July, so I have zero interest in buying. Still. Did I miss most of the up move? Yes. Do I care? No. I try to never buy high in trading ranges and every time I can refrain from doing it I practice following my rules and that is much more valuable than catching some of the breakouts.
current market cycle: trading range - on lower time frames it’s also obviously a bull trend
key levels: 73 - 80
bull case: Bulls have made a higher high above 77, which is obviously bullish. We have a clear bull channel on the daily chart, which is where the problem for the bulls is. They are at so many prior highs and the top of the channel, that buying above 76 is a tough spot and hard to structure a good long trade around it. If you buy 76, your stop has to be 72.6 and that’s 340 ticks. For this to be a 1:1 trade we would have to hit 79.4 and the last time we did was July. It could work but the probability is likely not on your side here. Any long below 75 or closer to 73 would be a very different story and a reasonable trade. 80 is the obvious next target above.
Invalidation is below 72.6.
bear case: Bears still have not much. We are trading at many prior resistances but until they can generate more selling pressure than one 1h bar, they don’t have anything going for them. I do think the sell spike down to 75.42 was already enough to fulfill the breakout-retest and we could continue up from here. Bears would need a 1h close below 75 to get some arguments on their side but given the current strength of the move, it will probably be another bull flag to break out above again.
Invalidation is above 80.
outlook last week:
→ Last Sunday we traded 73.96 and now we are at 76.57. Bulls kept at it, decent outlook.
short term: Bullish again but buying above 76 is probably not a good idea. I want to get long closer to 73/74 once momentum upwards gets going again.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-02: Still no better medium-long term outlook to write about. The triangle has been going on for so long, it’s highly unlikely that we will break above it.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed bear trend line and added bull channel.
comment: Another huge bull surprise last week and we made a higher high above the 2024-10 high 77.38. A measured move target is 78.04 and the high was 77.86. Close is always close enough. I would like to see another try at 78 and another huge rejection for me to short. I do think shorting right now is too early but buying after a 244 point rejection is not good either, since the upside is likely limited. Bulls are still in full control here but the last time we traded above 78 was July, so I have zero interest in buying. Still. Did I miss most of the up move? Yes. Do I care? No. I try to never buy high in trading ranges and every time I can refrain from doing it I practice following my rules and that is much more valuable than catching some of the breakouts.
current market cycle: trading range - on lower time frames it’s also obviously a bull trend
key levels: 73 - 80
bull case: Bulls have made a higher high above 77, which is obviously bullish. We have a clear bull channel on the daily chart, which is where the problem for the bulls is. They are at so many prior highs and the top of the channel, that buying above 76 is a tough spot and hard to structure a good long trade around it. If you buy 76, your stop has to be 72.6 and that’s 340 ticks. For this to be a 1:1 trade we would have to hit 79.4 and the last time we did was July. It could work but the probability is likely not on your side here. Any long below 75 or closer to 73 would be a very different story and a reasonable trade. 80 is the obvious next target above.
Invalidation is below 72.6.
bear case: Bears still have not much. We are trading at many prior resistances but until they can generate more selling pressure than one 1h bar, they don’t have anything going for them. I do think the sell spike down to 75.42 was already enough to fulfill the breakout-retest and we could continue up from here. Bears would need a 1h close below 75 to get some arguments on their side but given the current strength of the move, it will probably be another bull flag to break out above again.
Invalidation is above 80.
outlook last week:
short term: Bullish until bears come around. Longing pullbacks is decent until we make lower lows again. Every touch of the 2h 20ema was bought, so keep looking for longs close to it.
→ Last Sunday we traded 73.96 and now we are at 76.57. Bulls kept at it, decent outlook.
short term: Bullish again but buying above 76 is probably not a good idea. I want to get long closer to 73/74 once momentum upwards gets going again.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-02: Still no better medium-long term outlook to write about. The triangle has been going on for so long, it’s highly unlikely that we will break above it.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed bear trend line and added bull channel.
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