MSFT Approaching a Key Reversal Zone – Will Bulls Defend Gamma?

🔎 Technical Analysis (TA) – Intraday Outlook

Current Price: ~$389.27
* MSFT is pulling back after making a local high near 396.31.
* The price is now sitting just above a demand block, marked by previous CHoCH and BOS levels, signaling a potential bounce zone.
* Structure is showing early signs of weakness, but key support at 382-385 is still intact.

Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish crossover with histogram declining — watch for a potential shift if buyers step in at support.
* Stoch RSI: Oversold, hinting at possible bounce if support holds.

Key Support Zones:
* 385 → Critical intraday support with 2nd PUT Wall.
* 382.87 → High confidence PUT level.
* 376.85 → Strong PUT support and bottom of the SMC zone (high reward bounce setup if defended).

Resistance Zones:
* 392.59 → Local rejection level.
* 396.31 → Key intraday resistance.
* 400 → Highest Positive NetGEX & Gamma Wall (major resistance zone).
* 405 → 2nd CALL Wall.

🧠 GEX & Options Flow Analysis (TanukiTrade GEX Zones)

* GEX Sentiment: 🟢🔴🟢 (Mixed — but put wall support is closer, bullish if held)
* IV Rank (IVR): 31.3
* IVx avg: 26.1 → Options pricing not overly volatile
* PUT$%: 9.6% – Moderate, suggesting dealers may provide support on dips
* Gamma Wall: At 400, major resistance
* PUT Support: At 380 with strong negative GEX (key defensive zone)
* HVL Cluster: Near 390 (May expiry), could pin price today if no catalyst.

🛠️ Trade Scenarios
📈 Bullish Setup – Support Bounce from 385 or 382
* Price bounces from key SMC demand zone and starts reclaiming 390+
* Entry: 386–387 zone reclaim + volume
* Target 1: 392
* Target 2: 396
* Target 3: 400
* Stop-Loss: Below 382.5

* Options Play:
* Long Apr 12 $390 Calls on bounce confirmation.
* Sell $385 Puts if confident in bounce continuation.

📉 Bearish Setup – Breakdown of 382
* If support fails at 382, expect a retest of 376.85 PUT support.
* Entry: Break below 382 with momentum
* Target 1: 376.85
* Target 2: 374 (liquidity sweep zone)
* Stop-Loss: Above 385.5

* Options Play:
* Long Apr 12 $380 Puts
* Debit Spread: Buy $385 Put / Sell $380 Put

🧭 Final Thoughts & Bias
* Short-Term Bias: Neutral → Leaning bullish if 382-385 holds
* GEX Context: Gamma compression is possible between 382-392 – breakout above or breakdown below will trigger expansion.

* Intraday Plan:
* Watch for bounce at 385 zone.
* Flip bearish only below 382 with strong volume.
* If 392.5 breaks, bulls may charge back toward 396-400 zone.

📛 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own due diligence and manage risk.