MSFT GEX Breakdown: Heavy PUT Signals Danger Below 380!

🔮 Options GEX (Gamma Exposure) Insights – MSFT:

🟥 PUT Domination Increasing
* Highest negative GEX sits around 380–375, making this a critical gamma support zone where dealers are heavily hedged long gamma.
* If MSFT breaks below 380, expect amplified sell pressure as dealers adjust hedges, possibly triggering a quick flush to 360, where another GEX wall sits.

🟩 CALL Walls Stack at Resistance
* CALL Walls are stacked between 395, 397.5, and 400, forming a firm gamma ceiling.
* The highest positive net GEX resides near 395–400, making upward movement difficult unless IV spikes and hedging flips.

📉 GEX Sentiment Summary:
* IVR: 50.3 → Volatility expectations remain moderate.
* IVx: 35.3, trending –7.75% lower, suggests option pricing is cooling — but this can rapidly reverse if support fails.
* PUTs dominate at 35.8%, implying dealers are short gamma and could accelerate moves if price breaks either direction — especially down.

🎯 GEX Game Plan:
* Below 380: Watch for a sharp selloff toward 375, then 360 if flow intensifies.
* Above 390: Limited upside until 395–400 clears — CALL resistance is thick, expect rejection unless news or volume surge.

🕰️ Technical Analysis – 1H Chart (Supports the GEX View)

* Trendline Breakdown: Price has slipped below a rising wedge, and EMAs are flattening out — bearish.
* VWAP Rejection: Price is struggling under VWAP, showing institutional sell pressure.
* MACD: Flat but negative, trending under zero — no momentum shift yet.
* RSI: Below 45 and falling — still no divergence or strength building.
Support/Resistance Key Levels:
* Support: 380 (first GEX wall), 375 (heavy PUT support), then 360 (final wall).
* Resistance: 390 (VWAP area), 395–400 (dense CALL walls).

🧠 Final Thoughts:
MSFT is coiling near a high-risk gamma zone. With dealers holding heavy short gamma below 380 and no clear bullish reclaim on the chart, downside remains open. Bulls need to reclaim 390+ fast — or risk a gamma-led liquidation flush to 375 or lower.
This is a GEX-driven chart — the technicals merely confirm what options flow already warns: the path of least resistance is likely down, unless a surprise reversal ignites above 390.

This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always manage risk and confirm setups with price action.