Long
The Great NANO Breakout - Part 2
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NANO has taken 4 months since my original post to start making some new highs, and 7 months since the break of the long term downtrend. Not what I was hoping for originally, but there just wasn't enough interest in the crypto market at the time. Here is the original post from August: 
Since then, WeNano has exploded in popularity, and the fast, fee-less cryptocurrency is starting to shine. I never underestimate the power of community and pure belief. Look at organized religion. This human tendency is what has allowed NANO to survive and build price support for so long. Even though the last breakout failed, it continued to find support around $0.70, which is what I was looking for to remain bullish longer term. It's only now trying to break out of this range. If NANO can break this rising resistance (pink) I think it can fly to some levels not seen since 2018. The first stop would be in the $3-5 range. On the bearish side, I don't want to see it break back below $1.10 and sustain. I suppose there's also room to fall to the pink uptrend if the rest of the crypto market corrects hard soon. And if it breaks down from the rising wedge, that wouldn't be good at all.
Generally, breaking up from a rising wedge formation is extremely bullish, as it proves the higher highs and higher lows were aggressive accumulation. A rising wedge breaking UP is even more bullish than an ascending triangle. Likewise, a falling wedge or falling channel breaking DOWN, just proves that sellers are far more aggressive than buyers.
I do think NANO fulfills every promise of what Bitcoin was originally meant for. To me, Bitcoin is Marxist in principle but capitalist in execution. You're owning the means of production, but by design it thrives within the capitalist system. It's a self-defeating, but incredibly profitable asset. Certainly better than dollars and gold, but more dystopian than utopian (in my opinion). It's a bit better than our current monetary system, but not by much.
When you look at NANO, it has a limited supply, but since it's pre-mined, there is no capitalist infrastructure around coin acquisition and creation. Instead, it's completely distributed. It's socialist in principle and relatively socialist in execution. Just look at the community and the WeNano app, and observe all the spots around the world where you can donate and collect free NANO. Of course, there will always be people with more financial resources who can own more NANO, but I think it's the simplest, easiest, fastest, and cheapest cryptocurrency with some adoption. XLM is the only coin on par with NANO's speed (of the ones I've used), and it requires a MEMO, along with an address. This added step increases the amount of time it takes to complete a Stellar transaction. With NANO, all you need is the address. I certainly see the argument for Bitcoin, and I won't really argue with Bitcoin Maximalists. There is certainly a point there. But people can have different views on how they think the future of money should be.
Things aren't ALL rosy for NANO though. It's only now starting to look bullish against the USD, and it may just be late to the party if Bitcoin tops out soon. We'd need momentum to keep building within the entire cryptocurrency market. It's also looking pretty terrible against Bitcoin, though just barely back into the long term falling wedge. I won't consider a reversal against Bitcoin until it triples in value from here
I also think with XLM doing well, we can see some more capital flow into NANO, which is simpler than Stellar, with a much smaller supply to boot. I don't underestimate greed here either.
Anyway, this is only my opinion. My writing should be used for educational, speculative, and entertainment purposes only! This is not financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
Since then, WeNano has exploded in popularity, and the fast, fee-less cryptocurrency is starting to shine. I never underestimate the power of community and pure belief. Look at organized religion. This human tendency is what has allowed NANO to survive and build price support for so long. Even though the last breakout failed, it continued to find support around $0.70, which is what I was looking for to remain bullish longer term. It's only now trying to break out of this range. If NANO can break this rising resistance (pink) I think it can fly to some levels not seen since 2018. The first stop would be in the $3-5 range. On the bearish side, I don't want to see it break back below $1.10 and sustain. I suppose there's also room to fall to the pink uptrend if the rest of the crypto market corrects hard soon. And if it breaks down from the rising wedge, that wouldn't be good at all.
Generally, breaking up from a rising wedge formation is extremely bullish, as it proves the higher highs and higher lows were aggressive accumulation. A rising wedge breaking UP is even more bullish than an ascending triangle. Likewise, a falling wedge or falling channel breaking DOWN, just proves that sellers are far more aggressive than buyers.
I do think NANO fulfills every promise of what Bitcoin was originally meant for. To me, Bitcoin is Marxist in principle but capitalist in execution. You're owning the means of production, but by design it thrives within the capitalist system. It's a self-defeating, but incredibly profitable asset. Certainly better than dollars and gold, but more dystopian than utopian (in my opinion). It's a bit better than our current monetary system, but not by much.
When you look at NANO, it has a limited supply, but since it's pre-mined, there is no capitalist infrastructure around coin acquisition and creation. Instead, it's completely distributed. It's socialist in principle and relatively socialist in execution. Just look at the community and the WeNano app, and observe all the spots around the world where you can donate and collect free NANO. Of course, there will always be people with more financial resources who can own more NANO, but I think it's the simplest, easiest, fastest, and cheapest cryptocurrency with some adoption. XLM is the only coin on par with NANO's speed (of the ones I've used), and it requires a MEMO, along with an address. This added step increases the amount of time it takes to complete a Stellar transaction. With NANO, all you need is the address. I certainly see the argument for Bitcoin, and I won't really argue with Bitcoin Maximalists. There is certainly a point there. But people can have different views on how they think the future of money should be.
Things aren't ALL rosy for NANO though. It's only now starting to look bullish against the USD, and it may just be late to the party if Bitcoin tops out soon. We'd need momentum to keep building within the entire cryptocurrency market. It's also looking pretty terrible against Bitcoin, though just barely back into the long term falling wedge. I won't consider a reversal against Bitcoin until it triples in value from here
I also think with XLM doing well, we can see some more capital flow into NANO, which is simpler than Stellar, with a much smaller supply to boot. I don't underestimate greed here either.
Anyway, this is only my opinion. My writing should be used for educational, speculative, and entertainment purposes only! This is not financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
Nota
Let me actually rephrase something I wrote here: Crypto (ideally) is a pure form of Democracy. I think Nano is quite democratic - the block lattice structure is also kind of emblematic of decentralized community, which I think is vital in future democracies. Bitcoin and Nano are both anarchist in nature, and neither is necessarily anti-capitalist. But the government and institutions are now attempting to control Bitcoin, so the longer the Nano economy stays illiquid, and the longer the government stays away - the better it is :) There is still clearly value and profit to be made, so crypto cannot be "anti-capitalist." Just extrapolating on my thoughts. Would love to hear other people's perspectives.
Nota
And by “illiquid,” I mean inaccessible by big money.Nota
Looks like NANO has broken out of the ascending pattern. Pretty enormous move today. For this to sustain and push towards the higher levels, I don't really want to see price going back below $1.50 for very long on a correction. Nota
$2.05-07 is also a really important level, as this was resistance in 2019.Nota
BADASSNota
Successfully made it to the next resistance cluster. This was actually the target for the breakout from the ascending resistance. Could take some time to break through this area, but the market has been pretty relentless recently. On a retrace, I don’t want to see it dip much below $2.Nota
Broke the falling wedge against BTC, but I still don't really trust it until it gets to the green level (above 20k sats) Nota
This is pretty much the deepest correction I was thinking about for NANO, for it to remain bullish. Let's see if the $2 level continues to hold. If NANO can get back above $4 by weekly close, that would be a strong signal. Nota
Pretty strong consolidation so far for NANO. I think it can target $6-7 next, and potentially even $10 (the next major level on my chart). Hard to say where it would end up on a breakout, but clearly NANO has some decent support from buyers here. For the bearish case, it would need to drop substantially from current levels.Nota
Looks like I was right, in terms of the next target for NANO. Even briefly shot up above $8. This $6-8 zone is a major resistance cluster, that dates back to 2018. Might have a hard time breaking through here. More consolidation might be needed. If NANO gets severely rejected and falls back below $5 and stays there, that could be a more bearish sign in the medium term, which could send it back to the $2 level. Nota
After this resistance zone, the next zone for NANO should be between $12 and $14. That's the highest NANO bounced in early 2018, if I remember correctly.Nota
As crazy as it sounds, if NANO heads towards ATH (near $40) it can top out logarithmically at triple digits. But I won't get too ahead here. There are still some major resistances that need to be broken. 
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