NIFTY : Trading levels and Plan for 18-Dec-2024

4 giorni fa

Nifty Trading Plan for 18-Dec-2024
Previous Day Plan vs Actual:
In yesterday's uploaded chart, we identified key levels of retracement and reversal zones. The Wave C completion zone (24,097 - 24,009) was highlighted as a potential support for buyers. As observed in today’s session, the price reacted strongly to this zone with a pullback, respecting the reversal area as anticipated. Additionally, the Golden Retracement Zone acted as intraday resistance, with prices consolidating sideways as shown in the Yellow Trend. Moving into 18-Dec-2024, we will adjust our plan based on the identified opening levels and trends.

Trading Scenarios for 18-Dec-2024:

1. Scenario 1: Gap Up Opening (100+ Points Above 24,319)
   If Nifty opens with a strong gap-up above 24,485 or near the Golden Retracement Zone, we should be cautious of immediate selling pressure. The first resistance to monitor is at 24,547. Price action here will determine further moves:
   
   If prices sustain above 24,547, expect an extension toward 24,686 (Last resistance for Intraday).
   
   Failing to sustain above 24,547 could lead to retracement back to 24,319 (Opening Support).
   
   Action Plan: Wait for a retest of support levels after the gap-up before initiating fresh longs. Avoid chasing prices.
   
   Tip: For option traders, focus on at-the-money call options with tight stop losses if support holds.
   
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2. Scenario 2: Flat Opening (Near 24,319 - Opening Support/Resistance Zone)
   If Nifty opens flat near the Opening Support/Resistance at 24,319, we must observe whether buyers or sellers take control:
   
   If prices break above 24,319 and sustain, look for a move toward the Golden Retracement Zone at 24,454 - 24,485.
   
   Failure to hold 24,319 could trigger selling pressure toward 24,150 and deeper levels like the Wave C completion zone.
   
   Action Plan: Observe 15-minute candle confirmation before taking any trade. Maintain a favorable Risk/Reward Ratio of at least 1:2.
   
   Tip: For options, consider selling put options if support holds or buying call spreads to minimize premium risks.
   
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3. Scenario 3: Gap Down Opening (100+ Points Below 24,319)
   If Nifty opens with a gap-down near the Wave C completion zone (24,097 - 24,009), this area will act as strong support for buyers:
   
   Look for reversal signs (bullish candles) in this support zone for potential long entries with stop losses below 24,009.
   
   If prices fail to reverse and sustain below 24,009, expect further downside toward 23,950.
   
   Action Plan: Focus on reversal confirmation at Wave C completion for long positions. Avoid shorting unless a clear breakdown occurs.
   
   Tip: For options, buying in-the-money call options at reversal zones reduces the impact of time decay.
   
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Risk Management Tips for Options Trading:

1. [] Always keep a defined stop-loss for every trade to protect your capital.
   [] Avoid holding options positions overnight, especially during high volatility.
   [] Use spreads (e.g., Call/Put Spreads) to minimize the impact of premium fluctuations.
   [] Do not risk more than 1-2% of your capital per trade.
   
2. Monitor the VIX index to gauge overall market sentiment and volatility levels.
   

Summary and Conclusion:

Bullish Scenario: Sustaining above 24,454 - 24,485 could trigger a move toward 24,686.
Sideways Scenario: Consolidation in the Golden Retracement Zone may dominate intraday moves.
Bearish Scenario: A break below 24,009 could invite further selling pressure.
Yellow Trend: Sideways Consolidation
Green Trend: Bullish Move
Red Trend: Bearish Breakdown
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. The analysis provided is for educational purposes only. Please conduct your research or consult with a financial advisor before taking any trade.