NQ Weekly Levels (Feb12-16)

11 feb 2024

Another strong week for the market as both NQ and ES hit new all-time highs, with ES closing above the psychological 5000 level. Mega-cap tech, along with small caps (Russell 2000 gained 2.6%), led the way. BTC also rallied, affirming the market's risk-on bias. The market, now highly extended, awaits this week's CPI report, small cap earnings & PPI data for continued bullish momentum.

SUMMARY

• NQ made a new ATH with a gain of 1.99% after trading in a range of 517 pts.
  
• NQ broke above the 2021 high
  
• Look for bullish momentum to continue if price stays above the 2021 high (17706)
  
• Next upside target is the LTF 1.618 Fib X(18116) with room to the 1.13 Fib X at 18768.
  
• If price fails to hold the 2021 high (17706) a move down to the 21 ema (17455) is likely.
  
• A move below the 21 ema would make a trip back to 17000 likely.
  
• Earnings cont' with reports from growth names ABNB, DDOG, HOOD, LYFT, SHOP, AMAT, COIN, DKNG, ROKU, TTD as well as KO, DE, KHC & HAS
  
• Econ data this week includes CPI on Tues, Retail Sales on Thurs & PPI on Fri
  
• Potential for outsized move in either directio is very high
  
• Elevated terrorist/war risk with escalaton of conflicts in the Middle East.
  
• RSI 70 | VIX at 13 | 10 year 4.18%
  

14 feb 2024

Nota

$NQ_F After running up and tapping the upside 1.618 extension target the CPI data sent price down for a perfect test of the 21 ema. So far the 21 ema has held. That is the key level to the downside. If bullish momentum continues to the upside look for a retest of the 18000 zone.

18 feb 2024

Nota

$NQ_F Bullish momentum continued sending price back up to test the 18000 level as noted above. Close the week back at previous ATH support which I will treat as the bull/bear line going into next week.