Nasdaq - Fake breakout

14 mar 2018

Prices have risen at an unsustainable rate and the recent February dip marked a key top level. I believe this week's breakout is a false breakout and more volatility will ensue. The false breakout is justified by the goldilocks job report (low unemployment, low inflation), but investors are forgetting how far prices have extended beyond their means recently and the February volatility should serve as a warning that a correction is very likely in the near term.

Moving average lines time periods: 13, 55, 233, 377

14 mar 2018

Nota

Included the 2015 dip (the last volatile period similar to what we saw in the Feburary dip). Prices retested the top level at 4670~ (with false daily breakouts) before retesting the lows. Prices are at an even dangerous levels now than they were at 2015 relative to their historical means (too fast of an increase!)

14 mar 2018

Nota

The February volatility was correlated with dips in the crypto market. Crypto is dipping again now so it would be interesting to see if this carries over to US equities again.

19 mar 2018

Trade chiuso: obiettivo raggiunto

Short closed.