SNAPSHOT of NASDAQ - LONG TERM VIEW
Nasdaq, historically speaking, is at an epic buying point.
Bullish Case: Should we see a pivot from the FED back to QE or some form of UBI checks sooner than markets are expecting, we could see reckless spending flock back into growth stocks.
OR
- If data shows a local top in inflation, the buy-the-dip crew is coming in HOT.
Bearish Case: Powell thinks he's got a little Volker in him, and keeps taking this thing down deflationary trying to break inflation. Eventually something breaks (no shot he catches up 75bps at a time) - probably bond markets, maybe housing goes no bid. who knows - but something will break.
OR
- U.S. debt/GDP is well over 100%, and if we do pivot back to QE, inflation roars, and people lose faith in the currency, then things could get extremely disorderly. The time to pay the piper for a decade a half of insanely expansive monetary policy may be upon us. And it ain't gonna be pretty.
Bullish Case: Should we see a pivot from the FED back to QE or some form of UBI checks sooner than markets are expecting, we could see reckless spending flock back into growth stocks.
OR
- If data shows a local top in inflation, the buy-the-dip crew is coming in HOT.
Bearish Case: Powell thinks he's got a little Volker in him, and keeps taking this thing down deflationary trying to break inflation. Eventually something breaks (no shot he catches up 75bps at a time) - probably bond markets, maybe housing goes no bid. who knows - but something will break.
OR
- U.S. debt/GDP is well over 100%, and if we do pivot back to QE, inflation roars, and people lose faith in the currency, then things could get extremely disorderly. The time to pay the piper for a decade a half of insanely expansive monetary policy may be upon us. And it ain't gonna be pretty.
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