NZDUSD grinds higher past 0.6000 ahead of RBNZ, US Inflation

9 apr

NZDUSD remains positive around 0.6035-40 early Tuesday, despite lacking upside momentum of late. In doing so, the Kiwi pair defends the previous week’s rebound from the lowest level since November 2023 while portraying the trader’s anxiety ahead of Wednesday’s monetary policy announcements from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the US inflation data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It should be noted that the recovery in price takes the support of the upbeat RSI (14) conditions and the bullish MACD signals, which in turn suggests brighter chances of the quote’s further advances. However, the 200-SMA and a five-month-old previous support line, respectively near 0.6070 and 0.6115, appear tough nuts to crack for the bulls. In a case where the buyers manage to keep the reins past 0.6115, the odds of witnessing a gradual run-up toward a four-month-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 0.6220 can’t be ruled out.

Meanwhile, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the quote’s October-November upside, close to the 0.6000 psychological magnet, restricts the immediate downside of the NZDUSD pair. Following that, the aforementioned horizontal area comprising lows marked since mid-November 2023, near 0.5940, will be the key challenge for the Kiwi pair sellers to pass before retaking control. Should the pair remain bearish past 0.5940, the November 14 low of around 0.5860 will act as the final defense of the buyers before driving prices down to the previous yearly bottom of 0.5773.

Overall, the NZDUSD pair is likely to extend the latest rebound ahead of the RBNZ and the US CPI, unless the output of the data/events suggests otherwise.