Indice S&P 500Short
[SPX 1W Trend Analysis] Oh Boy... This Looks Much Worse
Was inspired by @cryptocarlsontrading who made a very compelling 1W short case here:
Wanted to build on that with my own 1W breakdown.
As a swing trader sometimes I get caught too much in my 4h world and it can be very instructive to zoom out and see the bigger picture.
After doing this exercise, I'm even more convinced of the coming June crash.
Just look at those parallel trend channels compared to the support. We're definitely retesting 1W green support in June with some risk of breaking and holding under that for a few days (although given the consistency here I think there is more chance for a bounce off of it).
Points:
1. That MACD is horrifying. Most likely the histogram and MACD line won't even go high enough to retest channel resistance before shooting back down.
2. The price barely crossed the half way point of the current trend channel, expect it to fall back and stick at channel support a bit, won't retest channel resistance. Volume Profile will support it pretty well.
3. Very slippery Volume Profile slope once it holds below current channel, expect it to slide all the way down to bottom support of new channel (4th yellow line)
4. Once it breaks that expect it to test the green support before rebounding for good and growth can continue at a more normalized, properly priced trajectory.
5. RSI: New up channel is steeper than previous up channel, likely will stick to blue down channel here.
6. OBV: Seems like a decent sell signal trigger here once it breaks below trendline.
7. VPT as RSI: Very strong sell signal.
8. POC is below price, it is right at the price on the 4h, this is bearish as well.
Wanted to build on that with my own 1W breakdown.
As a swing trader sometimes I get caught too much in my 4h world and it can be very instructive to zoom out and see the bigger picture.
After doing this exercise, I'm even more convinced of the coming June crash.
Just look at those parallel trend channels compared to the support. We're definitely retesting 1W green support in June with some risk of breaking and holding under that for a few days (although given the consistency here I think there is more chance for a bounce off of it).
Points:
1. That MACD is horrifying. Most likely the histogram and MACD line won't even go high enough to retest channel resistance before shooting back down.
2. The price barely crossed the half way point of the current trend channel, expect it to fall back and stick at channel support a bit, won't retest channel resistance. Volume Profile will support it pretty well.
3. Very slippery Volume Profile slope once it holds below current channel, expect it to slide all the way down to bottom support of new channel (4th yellow line)
4. Once it breaks that expect it to test the green support before rebounding for good and growth can continue at a more normalized, properly priced trajectory.
5. RSI: New up channel is steeper than previous up channel, likely will stick to blue down channel here.
6. OBV: Seems like a decent sell signal trigger here once it breaks below trendline.
7. VPT as RSI: Very strong sell signal.
8. POC is below price, it is right at the price on the 4h, this is bearish as well.
Data analyst with a passion for best fit lines B)
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