[05/27] Weekly GEX Outlook for SPX

27 mag

⚠️ Unbalanced GEX & Institutional Hedging – A Closer Look

I haven’t seen such an asymmetric GEX setup in quite a while — and it’s definitely not a pretty one 😬. The current profile suggests a highly skewed positioning in the market:

📍 Massive upside expectation:
It feels like the market is almost exclusively preparing for a move toward 6000.

🛑 Limited downside protection:
Below the current level, there's very little hedging in place — especially unusual with Friday’s expiry approaching.

🔻 Current Key Zone: 5925-5930

The largest put open interest is sitting right around 5925, which is also close to spot.

Below that? Things get murky. The GEX profile becomes fragmented and mixed, with no clear put support until much lower.

Interestingly, most of the current downside hedging is clustered around the 5900–5925 range, which includes ITM puts — not OTM, as you’d typically expect from retail.

🧠 Institutional Footprint vs. Retail

This hedging pattern — closer to ATM rather than deep OTM — suggests institutional players are managing downside risk with precision.

In contrast, retail traders don’t seem to be actively hedging the downside with OTM puts, which is a notable shift from typical behavior in high-IV weeks like this.

🔼 What to Watch: The 5930 Breakout

If SPX can break and hold above 5930, it enters a clear, call-dominated zone.

From there, the path to 6000 looks much cleaner, with lighter resistance and the potential for a gamma-driven push 📈.

The details show the same picture when examining more details:



SPX conclusion

😬 In short: we’re at a tipping point.

Below 5900, hedging is tactical and institutional.

Above 5900, the path is open to 6000 — but only if bulls can take control at 5930!

29 mag

Trade attivo

Volatility has clearly been held up in SPX so far this week, but as soon as NVDA reported, the VIX started dropping.

We’ve now entered the green zone, just as expected once we crossed 5930!

Based on the current setup, I don’t expect significant resistance until we reach 6000.