This is more a set of trade ideas that will unfold as they play out rather than one specific idea.
We are kind of in a decision zone at this time based on a rising trendline since November. 3550 (from October) and 3945 are key levels to watch. A break above 3945 sets up a possible run to 4300 while a decisive break below the current range 3830-3910 signifies a significant selloff to 3550 may commence. To time your entry, it is also important to watch the VIX futures, as they have often (but not always) risen well ahead of a downturn.
The second dump in October 2020 was an exception, and because of that example, it's important to see confirmation in ES/SPY/SPX before entering a short position. If /VX and SPX both move strongly, that means you can pretty confidently short this bull market expecting a minor or major trend change. Otherwise, a trip to the 4000's seems likely.
We are kind of in a decision zone at this time based on a rising trendline since November. 3550 (from October) and 3945 are key levels to watch. A break above 3945 sets up a possible run to 4300 while a decisive break below the current range 3830-3910 signifies a significant selloff to 3550 may commence. To time your entry, it is also important to watch the VIX futures, as they have often (but not always) risen well ahead of a downturn.
The second dump in October 2020 was an exception, and because of that example, it's important to see confirmation in ES/SPY/SPX before entering a short position. If /VX and SPX both move strongly, that means you can pretty confidently short this bull market expecting a minor or major trend change. Otherwise, a trip to the 4000's seems likely.
