SPX: 75% chance Multi-Timeframe Reversal to 5,775-6,103 Zone

8 lug

**SPX MULTI-TIMEFRAME CYCLE CONFLUENCE ANALYSIS - SUPER VERSION**

**CURRENT SITUATION: July 7, 2025 - Price: 6,238**



Based on our quantitative cycle analysis across 4 timeframes, applying **ACTRAGEA hierarchical dominance principles** where ITM >> MTY >> TCY >> TYL.

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## **CYCLE HIERARCHY STATUS**

| **Timeframe** | **Cycle Phase** | **Status** | **Hierarchy** | **Key Level** |
|---------------|-----------------|------------|---------------|---------------|
| **ITM (1D)** | Phase 2 | FLAT | **DOMINANT** | Max: 6,284.65 **awaiting confirmation** |
| **TCY (1H)** | Phase 2 | FLAT | Secondary | Max: 6,284.65 **awaiting confirmation** |
| **MTY (270m)** | Phase 1 | LONG (+1.64%) | Subordinate | Seeking max: 6,359 |
| **TYL (15m)** | Phase 2 | LONG (+0.11%) | Subordinate | Max: 6,242.7 **awaiting confirmation** |

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## **PRIMARY SCENARIO (Probability: 75%)**

**DIRECTIONAL BIAS:** **Multi-timeframe reversal upon ITM maximum confirmation**

**RATIONALE:**
- **ITM timing**: 0 bars remaining from 50° percentile window → Maximum at 6,284.65 **awaiting confirmation** → Statistical pressure for confirmation increases daily
- **Hierarchical cascade**: **When ITM confirms maximum** → all subordinate cycles transition into Phase 3 (minimum search)
- **Current LONG positions** (MTY +1.64%, TYL +0.11%) face hierarchical override risk upon ITM maximum confirmation. Subordinate cycles will align regardless of current profitability.

**STATISTICAL PRICE LEVELS (50° Percentile):**
- **ITM**: 5,775.84
- **TCY**: 6,103.58
- **MTY**: 5,996.35
- **TYL**: 6,170.98

**STATISTICAL TIME WINDOWS (50° Percentile):**
- **ITM**: 65 bars | **TCY**: 58 bars | **MTY**: 62 bars | **TYL**: 81 bars

**EXTREME SCENARIOS (20° Percentile):**
- **ITM**: 5,420.71 | **TCY**: 5,934.73 | **MTY**: 5,728.16 | **TYL**: 6,084.71

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## **⚠️ ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO (Probability: 25%)**

**DIRECTIONAL BIAS:** ITM extension toward 80° percentile before maximum confirmation

**CONDITION:** ITM exceeds statistical time boundaries, allowing subordinate cycles temporary independence

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## **CRITICAL DECISION POINT**

**Confirmation Trigger:** ITM maximum validation at 6,284.65 → Phase 2→3 transition → Activation timeframe: Within 1-3 trading sessions (statistical pressure)

**Hierarchy Activation:** Immediate subordinate cycle alignment into Phase 3 upon ITM confirmation
**Invalidation:** Sustained break above 6,285 (negates ITM maximum thesis)

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## ** PROBABILITY FOUNDATION**

**75% probability derived from:**
- ITM expired timing creating high statistical pressure for confirmation
- Historical dominance patterns (85%+ subordination rate upon ITM phase changes)
- Dual Phase 2 alignment (ITM + TCY at identical maximum level awaiting confirmation)

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## **ACTRAGEA METHODOLOGY FOUNDATION**

Our **quantitative cycle framework** operates on **hierarchical dominance principles** where longer timeframes command shorter ones. Statistical levels represent **50° percentile probabilities**, not certainties. The **ITM critical juncture** at 6,284.65 creates high-probability setup for **coordinated multi-timeframe reversal initiation**.

**Performance Context:** Systems demonstrating 65.71% to 82.86% statistical reliability across timeframes.

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*Analysis based on ACTRAGEA hierarchical cycle principles and statistical percentile distributions. All levels represent probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes.*

9 lug

Nota

I could not yet translate all texts in the indicator we built to track Geo Cycles, however, all frames but DYL (daily) are in "waiting for peak confirmation" which is the last stage before reversal starts, the indicator is suggesting a low by Jul 25

10 lug

Nota

TS Entered short at 16:00 (TYL). Waiting for TS TCY to do the same.

12 lug

Nota

Jul 21 next setup. It will be a low, in my view if no new high on Monday. If we have a new high, next week seems to bullish-