SPX Elliott Wave Count Analysis

Just dropping a multi-timeframe breakdown of my current EW thesis for SPX, starting from the macro and drilling down to now.


Big Picture (3M View):



We’re still grinding through Grand Super Cycle Wave 3 (GSCW3) that I have starting in the 1932 low till now.

Scoped in look at Super Cycle W4(SCW4)


Super Cycle Wave 4 (SCW4) wrapped up around the ‘08-‘09 housing crash lows. Since then, we’ve been in SCW5, and based on current structure, I believe we’re still early or mid-stage, not near the end.


Zoom-In: SCW5 to Present (Cycle Degree Breakdown):


From the 2009 lows, price action carved out a textbook impulsive structure into what I’m labeling as Cycle Wave 1 (CW1), which likely topped out ~Dec 2024.

The correction that followed has the characteristics of an Expanded Flat:

A-B-C structure where Wave C just completed around April 7th.

This structure, in my view, forms Wave W of a potential WXY complex for CW2.

Now we’re either in:

The early stages of Wave X, targeting the 0.618 retracement zone of W (marked on the chart),

Or, X has already completed in a shorter move.

Alt (Low-Probability) Scenario:
There’s a slim case that the ABC (now W) correction was all of CW2 — given how it wicked into a deep, low-probability Fib zone (gray box).
If we get a clear impulsive move above that 0.618 area, I’ll pay closer attention to this alt — but for now, I’m leaning toward more downside after this X-wave finishes (if it hasn't already).

EW interpretations evolve, but this is my current working roadmap