SPX Rising Wedge

17 mar

Spotted an aggressively sloped rising wedge on SPX near the bottom of the recent correction. Theoretically, the more positive slope of the lower support compared to the upper resistance indicates buy-side pressure exhausting at a faster pace than sell-side pressure. Once bulls are exhausted, bears can reclaim control of the trend confirming the continuation.

Need a close below the orange wedge for confirmation of breakdown. Significant support at 5,631-5,652 so it is possible for this to catch a bounce before completing the measured move. However, if we break below 5,631 we will likely test the lower support of the blue parallel channel. Break below that structure takes us back to 5,505.

18 mar

Trade attivo

Gapped down overnight below the orange wedge confirming b/d. Caught some support around the 5620 level.

Cut 90% of my position and leaving the remaining contracts as high-risk runners.

20 mar

Trade chiuso manualmente

Closed remaining contracts at a loss. Switched to calls at the 5650 test near market open today for that juicy mean reversion.